UFC Fight Night 212 is next on the UFC fight schedule and will take place in the APEX in Las Vegas. The co-main event slot is filled with UFC legend Cub Swanson (28-12) taking on a rising prospect in Jonathan Martinez (16-4).
Swanson is close to the end of his career and will have a tough test in this younger fighter, but breaking down the styles and skills of these two will give us the best Swanson vs. Martinez prediction possible.
Cub Swanson vs. Jonathan Martinez Information
- UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- October 15, 2022
- ESPN+
Last Fight Records
Cub Swanson is coming off an impressive spinning wheel kick TKO over Darren Elkins in December.
Jonathan Martinez is currently riding a 3-fight win streak, including a decision victory over Vince Morales in his last fight in May.
Swanson vs. Martinez Analysis
This is an interesting fight between a very technical striker and a veteran that likes to get into 3-round wars. Cub Swanson must make this fight ugly to find his path to victory. Martinez is too technical and too fast to stay on the outside.
Martinez will try to keep his kickboxing distance and pick apart Swanson from the outside with a lot of volume in his strikes. Swanson will be fighting with a lot of heart and emotions, with this being one of his last times ever stepping into the octagon. He has mentioned before that he is in a different phase of his life, and fighting doesn’t come first anymore.
This is worrisome for the bettor leaning towards Swanson because you can’t go half-speed in the fight game, or else you’re going to get hurt. Another aspect to think about is Swanson cutting to 135 at 38 years old. Will it be a smooth weight cut?
Odds Breakdown
Cub Swanson
Swanson is the betting underdog at +182 odds going into this bantamweight bout. He has been the betting underdog in seven out of his last eight fights. The UFC veteran is no stranger to being the underdog and winning fights.
Jonathan Martinez
Martinez is the betting favorite with odds of -212. The over/under 2.5 rounds is set with the over being favored with -160 odds. In comparison to Swanson, Martinez has been the favorite in 5 of his last eight fights. Two different paths in recent history for these two fights that are meeting.
Swanson vs. Martinez Betting Pick and Prediction
The first best bet to look at is the Cub Swanson moneyline. Even though it will be tough, Swanson is going to be stronger than Martinez, with a lot more experience. He can gain that clinch position up against the fence.
The only question is if Swanson will show up ready to go for it and bring the fight to Martinez. But at +182 UFC odds, a Cub Swanson pick is worth it. The experience and power will lead to a victory. Keep this in mind when making a Swanson vs. Martinez prediction.
The second pick would be the under 2.5 rounds at +130. Cub Swanson’s only path to victory is to hurt Martinez in the first or early second, working out of the clinch and making this a blood bath.
The great upside to this under 2.5 rounds pick is that Martinez can very well catch the aging Swanson coming in with a counter right hand or check left hook and end the fight. This under-pick is probably the best bet in a close matchup between two solid fighters.
Making UFC picks can be so tough because of the unpredictability of the sport. Making Swanson vs. Martinez prediction is interesting because both men have clear paths to victory, and it will come down to who shows up and is the better man that night.
Swanson will always be game and ready for a war, even with his lack of focus in the sport as of late. It will be a great fight for MMA fans to witness two generations meeting in the UFC octagon.
Pick 1: Cub Swanson Moneyline (+182)
Pick 2: Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)
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