The UFC schedule is returning to Dallas, Texas for the second PPV card of July. UFC 277 will be full of great fights, including this heavyweight bout between Derrick Lewis (26-9) and Sergei Pavlovich (15-1). Pavlovich is getting his first heavyweight top 5 matchups of his career.
Lewis vs. Pavlovich UFC Odds
Derrick Lewis, although the higher ranked fighter, is coming in at a +118 underdog in this one, according to MMA odds.
That means that you need to bet $118 to get a $100 win. Pavlovich is a -138 favorite against the UFC veteran.
Prop bets for this matchup will be important to look at. Heavyweights with this kind of power and ability to finish their opponent calls for the fight to be a KO finish at some point.
Fighters Performance Recap
Derrick Lewis has 21 knockouts in his professional MMA career going into his 36th fight. His knockout ability is one of the best that the UFC has ever seen.
He will always be a threat to land something on an opponent’s chin; we have even seen him lose a fight for 14 minutes and then land a KO shot at the end.
Sergei Pavlovich has a very similar KO power to Lewis and has already had 12 KO wins in his 16 total pro MMA fights. His last three appearances in the octagon have ended in first round KO victories.
UFC Score Record
Derrick Lewis is coming off a tough KO loss to Tai Tuivasa and will be looking to get back on track to a title shot with an impressive performance here.
Sergei Pavlovich is currently on a 3-fight winning streak, all three coming by way of finish. His last fight he lost was in 2018 against MMA legend, Alistair Overeem.
Lewis vs. Pavlovich Betting Preview
Over/Under 1.5 rounds (+125/-155). This is an interesting line, I think that the under is the best way to go in this one.
I think both fighters will be trying to put pressure on the other from the early parts of the first round on Saturday in Dallas.
UFC 277 Betting Pick and Prediction
This fight is a really massive opportunity for both men, in different ways. Derrick Lewis, at the age of 37, is not going to be able to perform at this high of a level for much longer. I predict this is really his last chance to move towards a title shot.
Sergei Pavlovich is getting a huge step up in competition and has a chance to take the place of Derrick Lewis in the top 10 of the UFC heavyweight division.
We already have seen Lewis act as a gatekeeper to Tai Tuivasa and allow him to move up into the top 5 of the division with his win earlier this year.
Heavyweight Divison Odds
UFC odds can be very interesting, but the heavyweight division makes the whole process very entertaining because these athletes are so massive and hold so much power.
Both of these men are not looking to win a decision, they both have the ability to shut their opponent’s lights out with one punch. The UFC picks to look at in the heavyweight division are always the prop bets.
For example, the “the fight to end inside the distance” prop is currently at -600. That is basically saying it will for sure not take the full 3 rounds to decide a winner in this one.
I think the best pick for this one is either fighter to win inside distance. Lewis is at +125 for that prop, along with Pavlovich at +115.
Expert’s Fight Prediction
My prediction for this bout is that Derrick Lewis will need to come out with a sense of urgency. I believe the younger fighter in Pavlovich will try to come out fast and be too much for Lewis.
I want to believe Lewis knows how important this fight is and he truly wants to become champion one day.
He has struggled with some performance anxiety in the past fighting in Houston, but this being in Texas still, it could still be an issue for him.
Who to Bet On?
I am going with Pavlovich to win inside the distance at +115. I love Derrick Lewis and he will always be dangerous at any given moment inside the octagon, but I think Pavlovich is just hungrier and going to be too much for him in this one.
UFC Pick: Pavlovich to win inside the distance (+115)
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