On this stacked preliminary card of UFC 281, one of the key matchups will be the fight between light heavyweights Dominick Reyes (12-3) and Ryan Spann (20-7).
These two fighters are looking to move up into the division’s top half with a big win this Saturday in New York City.
Last Fight Record
- Dominick Reyes is coming off a KO loss to the current champion Jiri Prochazka in May of 2021.
- Ryan Spann is fresh from a big submission victory over Ion Cutelaba this May.
Reyes vs. Spann Betting Analysis
Dominick Reyes
If you look at Dominick Reyes record, you see that he has heartbreakingly dropped his last three fights against literally three of the top light heavyweights in the last five years.
Reyes’ Loss Against the GOAT
After losing a debatable decision to the GOAT Jon Jones, he suffered back-to-back brutal KO losses to two of the last three division champions.
These losses were the first three of his career, so you have to remember how great of a fighter he is.
After taking over a year off competing, he has been training with UFC legend Glover Texeira and main event fighter Alex Pereira for this camp. This will be a new and improved Reyes just entering his prime.
Let’s Breakdown the Numbers
To make a Reyes vs Spann prediction, we need to break down the numbers side of these fighters. Reyes lands 4.77 strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.73.
With his aggressive nature, these are impressive numbers that show how he was able to out-strike Jon Jones.
Ryan Spann
Spann is a very intense fighter by nature. He seems to hold grudges with many opponents, even if the issue comes out of thin air.
This is clearly the way he can motivate himself to get in the octagon and try to hurt these fighters.
Is Spann a Challenge?
With his big frame and long limbs, Spann is going to be a challenge for anybody in the division on the feet or on the ground.
He can lock up a lot of different front chokes and then drop his opponent with a big overhand. The former LFA champion seems to be locked in and ready to make a run at the title.
Spann’s Averaging Numbers
According to UFC stats, Spann averages 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and only half the fight time that Reyes has averaged in his UFC career.
If you were to make a Ryan Spann fight prediction, it would be a finish at some point because his last four fights have ended in a finish.
UFC Update
There are no updates for this preliminary card bout. No injuries were reported to the UFC coming into fight week.
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann Betting Preview
UFC odds have Reyes as the betting favorite, with the line currently at -210 halfway through fight week. Spann is at +180 as the underdog, which shows how highly the oddsmakers think of Reyes, even after three losses in a row.
The fight going the distance is currently at major plus odds. This fight just seems to be ending before the scorecards come into play.
If you’re going to make a Reyes vs Spann prediction, you need to take into account the finishes both men have in their arsenal.
Reyes is primarily a striker, but something tells me that he has worked a lot on his jiu-jitsu with Texeira at his gym. Spann is dangerous on the ground with 12 career submissions.
Reyes will be prepared to add to his 80% takedown defense and defend submissions if the fight gets to the ground.
Reyes vs. Spann Betting Predictions
The Reyes vs Spann prediction is going to be the toughest of the UFC predictions this weekend. Reyes has been out of the octagon for a long time, while Spann seems to be riding a lot of momentum since his recent performance.
Look for both men to put the other in a lot of danger early on. Spann is going to get clipped with a shot and wobble, and he will have a close call on a guillotine at the end of a round.
This is a closer fight than what the odds are saying. When UFC events are this stacked, we take these big fights on the prelims for granted.
Who to Bet On?
This fight is more of a pick ’em than expected, and if you aren’t going to skip over this, you should go with the best value you can get. My pick is this fight going the distance at +250.
Both these athletes have too much to fight for right now in their careers and will be in great shape going into this weekend.
Look for this to be a 3-round war. You can’t pass up those odds for a fight to last 15 minutes.
UFC Pick: Fight going to distance (+250)
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