UFC 304 Edwards vs Muhammad 2: Betting Guide and Picks

Pick Analysis

We have a UFC 304 betting guide for the main event in Manchester this Saturday, which puts Leon Edwards against Belal Muhammad.

Edwards and Muhammad have met before, which ended in a no-contest after Edwards eye-poked Muhammad.

We have UFC predictions for the main event on the pay-per-view card, where Edwards is a -260 favorite to retain his welterweight title.

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Edwards vs Muhammad Betting Analysis

Most of the money has come for Edwards, who is considered the much better fighter in the welterweight rankings.

We picture Edwards starting around -280, and Muhammad could drift to around +230, based on the amount of money coming for the champion.

Edwards vs Muhammad Betting Preview & Updates

Edwards and Muhammad have similar MMA records, with Muhammad owning a 23-3 record and Edwards at 22-3.

However, Edwards has faced much stronger opposition, having fought for the title against Kamaru Usman, before defending the title against Usman and Colby Covington.

That’s why most of the money has come for Edwards, and our UFC 304 betting guide expects most wagers to be placed on the champion.

He not only has a clear class advantage over Muhammad, but he also fights in front of a home crowd in Manchester.

Edwards vs Muhammad Recent Results

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Edwards Analysis: No Real Challengers

We think Edwards has run out of worthy challengers for his welterweight title, and beating Muhammad will reinforce that.

The 32-year-old shocked the world when he head kicked Usman to win the title in 2022 with under a minute left.

That changed his career because he was losing that fight, and he has since defended his title twice.

“I don’t think there’s really any big money fights right now in the welterweight division,” Edwards said.

“I’m focused on Belal right now. Go out there, take care of business next weekend and after that, let’s see where the cookie crumbles.”

Muhammad is talking a big game as if Edwards isn’t the rightful champion. However, Edwards’ career has been illustrious and he has fought harder opponents.

Edwards isn’t far off moving up in weight, and once the -260 favorite beats Muhammad, that’s likely to happen.

Muhammad Analysis: Is Confidence King?

Muhammad has been doing too much talking for our liking, but he headlines the UFC next events.

The 36-year-old American has a lot of confidence, but that doesn’t always mean it’s true confidence. It could be false bravado, but our UFC 304 betting guide looks deeply at his UFC career.

He comes off a decision win over Gilbert Burns and that was a solid win. He landed 132 significant strikes, which is a fair number over five rounds.

That followed a knockout win over Sean Brady, and although Brady was 16-1, Brady wasn’t near the top of the division.

Our problem with Muhammad is that he hasn’t faced the elite fighters in the division, like Usman and Covington.

“Leon, like I said, it’s a fear thing,” Muhammad said. “He knows these next matchups are going to be tough. He knows that he’s going to lose. He knows once this fight was signed, it was like, ‘Alright, well, this is my last couple of chances walking around with this belt.”

He has too much confidence for our liking, but bettors get +210 for him to win. That is a good price for the underdog, regardless of his win credentials.

Edwards vs Muhammad Betting Prediction

We are confidently backing Edwards at -260, and there is also excellent value at +125 for Edwards to win by decision.

He is a quality champion, and unlike what Muhammad has been saying, he’s known in the MMA world because he’s the champion.

Saying he wouldn’t be known if he wasn’t a champion makes little sense because he is the champion. Therefore, there is only one dog in this fight and it’s the favorite.

Edwards should win comfortably over five rounds and prove a point in Manchester.