Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes are set to headline a great event for the UFC this weekend in Las Vegas. These two top-ranked heavyweights are looking for a key performance to earn themselves a shot at heavyweight gold later this year, especially with Jon Jones sitting on the throne currently.
Read further for a deep dive into breaking down this matchup, along with an official Pavlovich vs Blaydes betting analysis and prediction, before your weekend betting slates are finished.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Information
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes
Location of the fight: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
Date and Time: April 22, 2023. 7 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Pavlovich is fresh off a dominating 2022 campaign with three 1st round finishes, two of which were over Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa within the first minute.
Blaydes is coming off an impressive TKO over Chris Daukaus, and a freak TKO win over Tom Aspinall.
Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Betting Analysis
Sergei Pavlovich
The only thing you need to really know about Pavlovich is how dangerous he is. In his 18 career professional bouts, only three have made it past the first round. This guy comes into every fight with bad intentions, and his power doesn’t allow anybody to withstand it for more than a few exchanges. He is almost on Francis Ngannou’s levels of power, but with arguably better technique.
Pavlovich will need to be prepared for an onslaught of level changes from Blaydes. His 66% takedown defense will need to improve this weekend for himself to be able to get the offense he needs going.
Curtis Blaydes
Blaydes has been in the UFC heavyweight division top 5 seemingly forever. From his debut against Ngannou, until now, he has fought just about every tough fight in the division. His striking has improved throughout his career, showing how dangerous he can be last year in his fight against Daukus.
The wrestler has averaged 3.54 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon; but the most impressive stat has been only absorbing 1.70 strikes per minute. This is probably due to his wrestling-heavy offensive attack, but he will be very happy if he can keep it to below 2 strikes absorbed per minute against Pavlovich.
Will he be fighting for gold in his UFC next fight with a win this weekend?
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the NSAC.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Betting Preview
When you see two big-time heavyweights headlining an event on the UFC schedule, it usually means it’s must-see TV. It’s hard to imagine this fight lasts very long with these two massive humans, unless Blaydes wrestles Pavlovich for 25 minutes.
Pavlovich is a big, strong Russian martial artist with great training partners and will surely be ready for the wrestling scrambles with Blaydes this weekend–it’s the only thing he really needs to worry about.
- Blaydes is the -175 betting favorite over the red-hot Pavlovich this weekend.
- Pavlovich is at +150 odds as the underdog, something that almost seems like a prank by oddsmakers.
The Uphill Battle for Blaydes
Before we get to the Pavlovich vs Blaydes betting prediction, we can’t forget about the tendencies of Blaydes. Even as the betting favorite, it feels like he is always moving uphill to earn his title shot. Every time he gets a top contender fight, he loses.
First it was when Ngannou just had his number, starting too fast for Blaydes to even realize what was happening. Then, it was a heartbreaking uppercut from Derek Lewis–a fight that Blaydes looked well on his way to dominating for as long as it went on.
Blaydes also seems to be in strange fights consistently throughout his career. Doctor stoppages, freak injuries, bad referee stoppages, and everything else.
Will this finally be the weekend where everything aligns for Blaydes?
Pavlovich took over 2 years off after COVID hit and made it tough for him to leave Russia. Since then, he has been the grim reaper of UFC veterans and seems to be pretty much unstoppable. If Blaydes makes it past the first round with this guy, he should be pumped for that second round.
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Betting Prediction
With two high-level fighters like we have in this main event, it is very difficult to make quality UFC predictions. Tom Aspinall blowing out his knee just 15 seconds into his main event against Blaydes last summer is a prime example of the unpredictability of MMA.
The official Pavlovich vs Blaydes betting prediction has to be Pavlovich winning via TKO/KO. Pavlovich’s moneyline as an underdog is far enough to make a play on. He is so dangerous and has just good enough wrestling for this weekend.
- Pavlovich at +145 is the pick to make for this UFC main event bout.
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