At the first of the 2023 numbered UFC events, the two best flyweights in the world will be battling it out in the co-main event bout to see who the undisputed UFC flyweight champion will be. Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) and Brandon Moreno (20-6-2) have already met inside the octagon on three separate occasions. The trilogy’s record for both fighters is 1-1-1; this fourth installment will be the deciding moment of this rivalry.
Read further for a complete Figueiredo vs Moreno betting analysis and prediction before making your picks this weekend for UFC 283.
Last Fight Record
Figueiredo hasn’t fought anybody except Moreno since late 2020. He finally beat Moreno in their last bout almost exactly one year ago at UFC 270. In the other two fights, Figueiredo got a draw and lost via submission in the rematch with Moreno.
Moreno fought for the interim flyweight title while Figueiredo was sitting out due to injury. He beat a very dangerous Kai Kara France in July of 2022 via TKO due to a body kick in the third round.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Information
UFC 283: Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) vs Brandon Moreno (20-6-2)
Location of the fight: Jeunesse Arena. Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Date: Saturday, 21st January. 6:00 PM CST.
Figueiredo vs. Moreno Betting Analysis
Deiveson Figueiredo
Before meeting Brandon Moreno in the octagon, Figueiredo was on his way to becoming arguably the most dominant flyweight in UFC history. He won 9 out of his first 10 UFC fights, including seven finishes. He has 9 TKO/KO wins and eight submission wins in his professional MMA career.
Figueiredo’s stats have dropped quite a bit since partaking in the Moreno trilogy of fights, but they are still impressive. He has averaged 3.27 strikes landed per minute in the octagon. Along with that, Figueiredo has absorbed 3.53 strikes per minute. He lands at an impressive 55% striking rate.
Figueiredo averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes in the grappling department in the UFC. He will attempt 1.8 submissions per fight and has a middle-of-the-road takedown defense at 58%. He will sometimes welcome the takedown to catch his opponent in one of his submissions.
Brandon Moreno
Moreno has had an incredible career with a very inspiring story. He has gotten cut from the UFC and looked like a failure in its eyes; then, he was able to work his way back and make a title run in the promotion. He has 15 finishes out of his 20-win career at the professional level. Surprisingly, the majority of those finishes have come via submission, totaling 11 in his career.
The Mexican-born fighter has averaged 3.58 strikes landed per minute in the octagon while only absorbing 3.33 strikes in that same minute. He fights with a classic boxing-style approach, high guard, and slick boxing skills.
Moreno is no slouch on the ground, as he has shown against Figueiredo in their past meetings. He averages 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 44% clip. To go along with that, Moreno has a solid 68% takedown defense.
Updates
This is the first 4-fight series in UFC history.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Betting Preview
UFC odds have Brandon Moreno as the slight betting favorite at -120. He has been more active in the last year, and that activity gives him a slight advantage over the very closely matched Figueiredo.
Figueiredo is a +100 underdog going into the 4th fight. In their first meeting, Figueiredo was a sizeable -320 betting favorite when the lines closed back on December 12th, 2020. In the third fight, he was a larger underdog at +165.
The key prop bets to look at while breaking down the possible Figueiredo vs Moreno betting picks are available at any major sportsbook. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds, which seems like an impossible pick to make, given the past with these guys. Either guy has the skill to finish the other at any moment.
For big value props, Figueiredo winning inside the distance is available at +270, and Moreno doing the same is at +275. Either fighter will be tough to get out of there, but you’ve seen them both win in that fashion quite a bit in their careers.
There is a lot of mental warfare that will take place between these two. From the faceoffs to the fight, standing across from the same guy for the fourth time is tough, especially at the highest level. Moreno will be playing the visitor role in Brazil, bringing a brand new aspect to this rivalry.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Betting Prediction
Before we decide the best Figueiredo vs Moreno betting pick, we have to predict how this fourth fight will play out. UFC picks are so difficult to make because of the unknown. Any given night inside the octagon is completely different, and we have no idea what will exactly happen in the cage on Saturday night.
The difference with this fight is that we have already seen it play out on three separate occasions. In my humble opinion, Brandon Moreno could have a case of winning all three of those fights. There is no issue with the draw or the decision in their last bout, but Moreno could have gotten the nod in both of those, and I wouldn’t have been upset with the judges.
Moreno is the more skilled fighter. He is only 29 years old and entering his prime. He is finally getting his grown man body and strength. Figueiredo is 35 years old, and we have no idea how tough this weight cut is going to be for him. The Brazilian has a long history of tough weight cuts.
Brandon Moreno is going to come out with confidence, pressure, and a plan to win this fight. He knows that this is the biggest fight of his life, and he can move on from this chapter with the UFC flyweight division in his hands before turning 30 years old.
Moreno’s pressure, cardio, boxing skills, and ability to mix in level changes will be the deciding factor in this fight. Also, if he can land body kicks at range, Figueiredo might be in big trouble on Saturday night.
Do not be surprised if Moreno makes this look a lot easier than we expected and steamrolls over the once-dominant Figueiredo. Figueiredo will easily make that move up to bantamweight to finish his career, where he will most likely be a top title contender immediately upon moving up.
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