UFC 301 is set for this Saturday night on the UFC fight schedule and it’s going to be a great card full of incredible matchups. The main event in Brazil is this UFC flyweight title fight between champion Alexandre Pantoja and surprising challenger, Steve Erceg.
Brazil Erupts for Flyweight Title Clash! Explore the top scores and odds for Every Round!
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Figth Details and Betting Pick
Pantoja vs. Erceg Information
Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg
Location of the game: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Date and Time: May 04, 2024. 10 PM ET main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
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- Pick: Under 3.5 & Fight to end inside the distance
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Continue reading for the official Pantoja vs Erceg betting analysis before you place UFC bets on the card this weekend.
Last Fight Record
Pantoja is coming off a title defense unanimous decision win over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December.
Erceg is fresh off of his KO win over Matt Schnell in March.
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Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Analysis
Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja is a 27-5 professional MMA fighter from Brazil. He has 8 TKO/KO victories and 10 submissions under his belt at the age of 34, along with a UFC flyweight title defense. He’s turning into a very decorated athlete with the third most wins in UFC flyweight history (11) and third most performance bonuses (5).
Training out of American Top Team now, Alexandre Pantoja is going into this weekend as a 5’5” orthodox striker with a 67” reach. He averages 4.32 significant strikes landed per minute in the octagon while absorbing 3.90 per minute. His grappling might be the biggest weapon he has, averaging 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 48% clip.
Steve Erceg
Erceg is a 12-1 Australian mixed martial artist with only three fights in the UFC. He is on an 11-fight winning streak going into this weekend, scoring 2 TKO/KO wins and 6 submissions. He’s an Eternal MMA flyweight champion in his home country, which earned him a contract with the UFC. In his brief 11 months of work in the organization, Steve Erceg has brought home two post-fight bonuses.
Erceg is a 5’8” slick orthodox fighter with a 68” reach and 11:49 of average fight time in the octagon. He is only 28 years old and has been averaging 4.57 significant strikes landed and 3.64 absorbed per minute in the UFC. He also scores 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 30% clip, and has a solid 77% takedown defense.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to ESPN or the UFC.
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Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Preview
After going through the Pantoja vs Erceg betting analysis, one fighter might stand out to you. There are a lot more angles to look at this fight, though. We need to break down the betting lines and study the styles of each fighter to understand how they might clash in the octagon on Saturday night.
The UFC odds have Pantoja going into the weekend as the -185 betting favorite over the +155 Erceg. For the difference between their resumes, this is a lot closer of a fight than you’d expect it to be in sportsbooks. This bout is favored to end inside the distance at -155 and the over/under is set at the 3.5 round mark.
Stylistically, this has all the makings to be the most exciting of all the upcoming UFC fights. Pantoja is a flat-footed power puncher guy but has surprising skills in many techniques. He can whip up some good head kicks, finishes his combinations with a dangerous left hook, and has a TON of heart. His best attribute is his confidence in grappling and his ability to scramble and wrestle out of anything.
Erceg is a much more calculated fighter with a tight boxing guard and clean combinations with his hands. He can grapple at a very high level as well, but we haven’t seen too much of him in the UFC to really grasp what he comes to the octagon with–which could be his advantage.
The Erceg betting analysis makes him look like he’s fighting way out of his class in this one, but he has the skills to beat Pantoja. The unknown and underdog mentality of this Australian challenger seems like the perfect storm for a UFC flyweight title fight.
Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Prediction
After the Pantoja vs Erceg betting analysis and previewing this fight both stylistically and through the betting lines, we have a good feel for how to bet on this matchup.
Our pick leans toward Pantoja’s win on Saturday night. This Pantoja match prediction comes from his championship experience and high-pressure style. Erceg does his best work with some room to breathe, and Pantoja will try to take that away.
For the best value, take the under 3.5 round total and take this fight ending inside the distance. The pressure will be put on early and there will be too many flurries and trading in the pocket for this fight not to end inside the first three rounds.
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