The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York, on Saturday, November 12, for UFC 281. Israel Adesanya defends his Middleweight Title against Alex Pereira in the main event.
Adesanya is undefeated in the UFC in middleweight bouts but has two losses to Pereria in kickboxing. He lost via TKO to his UFC 281 challenger in 2017. Keep reading for our Adesanya vs Pereira betting preview!
Defending Women’s Strawweight Title
There are plenty of other great UFC 281 fights on Saturday. Carla Esparza defends the Women’s Strawweight Title against Zhang Weili.
Other fights include Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler in what’ll likely serve as a No. 1 contender’s bout for the Lightweight Title and Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez.
However, all the intrigue will be on Adesanya Pereira betting. There’s history there, and there’s plenty on the line – the title and Adesanya’s perfect record in UFC middleweight competition. Let’s get into this for UFC predictions this weekend while looking at Adesanya Pereira odds.
Last Fight Records
“The Last Stylebender” enters Adesanya Pereira betting on Saturday night, having won each of his last three fights.
He suffered the only loss of his UFC career to Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259, but that was a light heavyweight bout.
Adesanya is undefeated in middleweight bouts and last defended the title against Jared Cannonier via unanimous decision at UFC 276.
More accomplished as a kickboxer, Pereira has just seven career MMA fights and has only competed in a handful of UFC events.
He won his last fight via first-round TKO against Sean Strickland. He also has wins in the UFC over Bruno Silva and Andreas Michailidis.
Adesanya vs. Pereira Betting Analysis
Adesanya is 23-1 in his mixed martial arts (MMA) career. The 6-foot-4 Nigerian has a slight reach and leg reach advantage over Pereira. Adesanya has won 68 percent of his fights via KO/TKO.
His average fight time is 18:09, which is obviously inflated because he’s been in so many five-round title bouts.
Pereira, meanwhile, has won five of his six MMA fights via KO/TKO. He averages a higher knockdown per 15 mins rate (1.31 to 0.76) than Adesanya.
He also lands – and absorbs – more strikes and significant strikes per minute than his UFC 281 opponent.
Adesanya Seeking Redemption
Adesanya is an unstoppable force in the UFC Middleweight Division. His only career loss is to a light heavyweight, and he wears his undefeated record in middleweight as a badge of honor.
He’s going to be especially motivated against a man who has defeated him twice in combat sports.
Pereira Looking to Prove He Can Do It in the Octagon
Pereira has two wins over Adesanya, but he hasn’t beaten him in MMA, nor has he done so under the bright lights at Madison Square Garden in front of millions of viewers worldwide.
It’s a different beast main-eventing a UFC PPV, and Pereira still has a lot to prove.
UFC News
If you really want to know how badly Adesanya wants this victory, he told TMZ Sports last week that he wants to “make this a horror movie.
“I want to be the first person he sees when he wakes up. I want to make sure I’m right in his line of sight, so he’s looking at me.”
Adesanya vs. Pereira Betting Preview
Despite their history, “The Last Stylebender” is the favorite in the Adesanya vs Pereira betting odds. Adesanya is listed as a -165 moneyline favorite, whereas Pereira is +140. However, it’s clear sportsbooks – and bettors – aren’t as confident in Adesanya as they have been in the past.
Adesanya was a -475 favorite in his last fight against Cannonier. His odds haven’t been this close to even money since his victory over Paulo Costa at UFC 253 on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
While there are still no odds for the method of victory, the over/under for rounds is naturally listed at 4.5. The over is paying out -160, while the under is paying +130.
Adesanya’s last three victories have been five-round unanimous decisions, so sportsbooks are accounting for that. But keep in mind Pereira has shown he can knock out Adesanya.
Adesanya vs. Pereira Betting Prediction
Adesanya is undefeated in middleweight competition and has gone through seemingly every competitor Dana White can find him, but he still has to conquer Pereira.
He’s clearly motivated and will fight a strategic bout, playing to his strengths, frequently switching his stance, and keeping his opponent off guard with a combination of kicks and punches.
However, Pereira could be in his head. He has two victories over him already, and yet, he knows all the pressure is still on Adesanya.
There are plenty of promising UFC 281 fights, and this should be the best, especially if Pereira scores the upset.
Who to Bet On?
Expect Pereira to take down Adesanya via TKO in either the fourth or fifth round. I’d be more comfortable at Pereira on the moneyline, but take the over 4.5 rounds if you’re interested in those Adesanya vs Pereira betting UFC odds.
Fight Pick: Pereira +140
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