One of the key matchups on the preliminary card for the last event of the 2022 UFC fight schedule will be Jake Matthews (18-5) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (10-4). Check the Mathews vs Semelsberger Bets.
These are two of the more exciting prospects in the UFC welterweight division battling it out to go into 2023 on a high note.
Read along for a fight analysis and the best Matthews vs. Semelsberger bets to make this weekend for UFC Vegas 66.
Matthews vs. Semelsberger Information
- Venue and Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: December 17, 2022
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Records
Matthews is coming from a massive KO victory over Andre Fialho in June of 2022.
Semelsberger is looking to bounce back after suffering a unanimous decision loss to a tough Alex Morono in July of 2022.
Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger Analysis
Fighters’ Background
When we break down MMA fights, it is essential to look at the styles of both fighters. Jake Matthews is a long-time mixed martial artist.
He did not have a traditional martial arts background, but he started in this sport during the offseason of his Australian Football career, training with his brother and father out of his backyard shed.
Now Matthews is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Semelsberger has a high school wrestling background but went on to play Division-I football for a short period before quitting and starting his MMA career.
Fighters’ Fighting Style
Both of these fighters have the new-age mixed martial arts style, where they don’t come from traditional martial arts.
Matthews is a well-rounded fighter with 12 total finishes in his professional MMA career. He has 5 KOs and 7 submission victories, including an impressive six finishes inside the UFC.
Standing at 5’11” with a 73” reach, Matthews has averaged 11:10 of fight time inside the octagon.
The Australian fighter has shown much improvement in his striking, averaging 3.17 strikes landed per minute.
He has absorbed only 2.18 strikes per minute with a 61% defense rate. To go along with his improved striking, Matthews averages 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 66% takedown defense.
Semelsberger only has 6 UFC fights under his belt compared to Matthews’ 16 inside the UFC.
Semelsberger’s Advantage
Semelsberger will have a slight height and reach advantage in the octagon on Saturday, standing at 6’1” and having a 75” reach.
He fights with a high-volume style, tallying up 6 KOs in his MMA career and one submission to go along with that. A crazy factoid for Semelsberger is that he has both a 15-second and 16-second KO in the UFC.
Semelsberger lands 4.99 strikes per minute, but he also absorbs 5.17. This means he puts himself in situations where he takes a shot to land a shot.
To go along with that, he averages 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy. He holds a solid 63% takedown defense as well.
These analytics and style breakdowns will go a long way in choosing the best Matthews vs. Semelsberger bets this weekend.
Odds Breakdown
Jake Matthews
According to UFC odds, Matthews is the -260 betting favorite going into this matchup at UFC Vegas 66.
The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under line set at +120. The prop bet of Matthews winning inside the distance is at a +165 line currently.
Matthew Semelsberger
Semelsberger is the underdog in this matchup, with oddsmakers setting his moneyline at +220.
That is a lot of value for a guy with the knockout power of Semelsberger. For him to get a finish, the line is at +600. Again, that is a line for someone with two KO wins in under 20 seconds since March of 2021.
Matthews vs. Semelsberger Betting Pick and Prediction
UFC picks are very tough to make because of the unpredictability of each fight. When the best are fighting the best, it will always cause extra stress on MMA sports bettors.
Breaking Down This Fight
When picking the best Matthews vs. Semelsberger bets, breaking down the fight as we did here is a must. On the analytics side of things, Jake Matthews stands out as the better fighter on paper.
Matthews will be the more all-around, solid mixed martial artist with multiple paths to victory. That is going to be too much for Semelsberger to handle.
Semelsberger is the great equalizer and is very tough, so a TKO/KO victory for the underdog is not off the table.
We can also see Matthews absolutely piecing him up for 15 minutes and mixing in takedowns, dumping Semelsberger on his head.
Who to Bet On?
The best bets will be the Matthews moneyline, and the fight will end inside the distance. This is a good pair of bets to make, adding the Matthews moneyline to a parlay to increase that payout.
The fight ending before the scorecards is a good pick because both fighters will be hunting down a finish. They are powerful and can hurt each other with a clean shot.
Also, the judges have shown that they can’t be trusted lately, and these guys probably don’t want their careers in those judges’ hands.
Pick 1: Matthews moneyline -260.
Pick 2: The fight ends inside distance, yes. +110
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