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Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac Betting Analysis and Prediction

UFC Fight Night is back this weekend after a week off with a banger card full of fights. To start the event, we will see the final rounds of “Road to The UFC,” a series made to get the best Asian talent to fight for a spot on the UFC roster. 

Headlining the main card will be a top 15 heavyweight battle between former multiple-time title challenger Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac. Read along for an in-depth fight analysis and the Lewis vs Spivac prediction to bet on this weekend. UFC events and breakdowns will be available every weekend. 

Last Fight Record

Lewis is coming off a disappointing KO loss in the first round of his fight with Sergei Pavlovich. 

Spivac is fresh off of a big win over Augusto Sakai in August via TKO in the second round. 

Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac Information

UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac

Location of the fight: UFC APEX. Las Vegas, NV.

Date: Saturday, February 4. 11:00 PM CT.

How to watch: ESPN+

Lewis vs. Spivac Betting Analysis

Derrick Lewis

Lewis is heading into a career crossroads this weekend with a big fight against a dangerous upcoming contender. After going 0-2 in 2022, this is a massive fight for the 39-year-old to stay relevant in the division and on top of fight cards. 

He is the first all-time in the UFC in knockout victories with 13. We know what he wants to do in the cage; land that one big punch to knock his opponent out. Lewis looks like he is potentially in the best shape of his life, which should excite his fans for this weekend. 

The big statistic for this matchup will be Lewis’s 55% takedown defense as of right now in the UFC. He is a very physically strong man that seems to use his strength more than any technique. He will need to improve his grappling to get past Spivac this weekend.

Serghei Spivac

Spivac is an interesting rising contender in the UFC. He has both the power in his hands and the elite grappling to dominate some tough opponents. Serghei is 15-3 in his career, with seven TKO/KO and six submission victories. 

He averages an incredible 4.09 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon. This is impressive for the heavyweight division. Along with his grappling, Spivac also has solid striking numbers, averaging 3.79 strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.96. 


Lewis has lots of motivation leading up to this fight. He wants to prove to the haters and Daniel Cormier that he still belongs at the top of the division.   

Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac Betting Preview

UFC odds have Spivac as the betting favorite at -235 heading into this weekend. He has been the betting favorite in every one of his UFC fights besides going against Tai Tuivasa and Walt Harris in 2019. 

Lewis is the underdog at +200. He has been in plus-odds for 4 out of his last five bouts. He has gone 2-3 in those fights. That is just what happens when you only face top 5 talent in the world for the last few years. 

A major part of this preview and arriving at a solid Lewis vs Spivac prediction will be to look back at Lewis’s fight against Curtis Blaydes. Blaydes has the elite wrestling numbers that Spivac has, and Lewis won that fight via vicious KO. 

Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac Betting Prediction

As we said before, UFC picks are difficult to make. The sport is so unpredictable, and literally, anything can happen on any given night in the octagon. Lewis has the power to KO Spivac with one punch, landing clean, and Spivac has the skill to ground and pound Lewis into a submission. 

Even though the odds say different, this is a fight you have to look at as a 50/50 choice. It is too difficult not to have it be a closer fight, with Lewis being able to end the night in one second. 

This might be a little wild, but the final Lewis vs Spivac prediction is for Lewis to get the job done. I think he will finally show up when the lights turn on, in great shape, and prepared to get back up on his feet when he gets into a bad position on the ground.

Also, I think Spivac will have a tough time getting Lewis to the ground. Good luck going to that body lock he looks for every fight with ‘The Black Beast,” throwing leg kicks and his right hand at you all night. 

This might be the fan in me talking, but Lewis is going to get a massive win and set himself up for yet another big main-event fight.

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