UFC 301 in Brazil is coming up this weekend on the UFC fight schedule and there’s an interesting matchup on the PPV portion of the card in this light heavyweight bout between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino. Smith is playing the role of gatekeeper to this young and impressive Brazilian prospect.
Can Petrino Upset Smith in Brazil? Keep track of the scores and odds for Every Round!
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Game Details and Betting Picks
Smith vs. Petrino Information
Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino
Location of the game: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Date and Time: May 04, 2024. 10 PM ET Main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
Smith vs. Petrino Picks
- Pick: Fight to go to decision (+200)
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Continue reading for Smith vs Petrino betting picks ahead of placing any UFC bets on this weekend’s UFC 301 betting slate.
Last Fight Record
Smith is coming off a brutal TKO loss to Khalil Rountree in December.
Petrino is fresh off a unanimous decision win over Tyson Pedro in March.
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Smith vs. Petrino Betting Analysis
Anthony Smith
Smith is an American professional mixed martial artist with a record of 37-19, including 20 TKO/KO wins and 14 submissions. Before his long career in the UFC, Smith won a Cage Fury middleweight title and a Victory FC middleweight title. Now he has accumulated seven post-fight bonuses in the UFC and has challenged for a world title.
At the age of 35, Smith is listed as a 6’4″ orthodox fighter with a 76″ reach. In the UFC, Smith averages 3.21 significant strikes landed and 4.47 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He adds about half a takedown per 15 minutes and holds an average 48% takedown defense. These statistics are surely deluded by his recent struggles after a long career of success.
Vitor Petrino
Petrino is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with an 11-0 professional record, including 7 wins by TKO/KO and 1 by submission. He is a Dana White’s Contender Series alum and also has a KO win over UFC veteran Gadshimurad Antigulov in the UAE Warriors promotion prior to DWCS.
Petrino stands at 6’2″ and fights as an orthodox kickboxer with a 77” reach. He is only 26 years old and averages 2.74 significant strikes landed and 2.49 absorbed per minute in the UFC. His grappling has been a huge asset for him in the UFC, averaging 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 71% takedown defense.
Updates
Neither the UFC nor ESPN has received reports of any injuries.
Smith vs. Petrino Betting Preview
Making Smith vs Petrino betting picks will be difficult to do because this is a very strange matchup on paper. Let’s take a closer look at the betting lines and styles of both fighters, which will help readers understand how to bet on other upcoming UFC fights as well.
Starting with the UFC odds going into this one, Smith is bringing up the rear as the sizeable +425 underdog, even as the higher-ranked contender. Petrino is the -600 betting favorite over the veteran, with -185 odds to win inside the distance.
This is a tough matchup stylistically for Smith. He has struggled against the fresher, more athletic opponents in recent years. His grinding-out wrestling skillset doesn’t handle these elite athletes too well nowadays. He endures a speed disadvantage and is notorious for his poor tolerance of leg damage.
Petrino is going to be the better athlete and have advantages in speed and power on Saturday night. If you are making Petrino betting picks, it’s difficult to not bet on him simply by the way he looks–he’s a physical specimen.
Smith’s fight predictions are tough to make right now because he is still a ranked contender with obvious skill and tons of experience. Sometimes it’s too much to go up against when he has to fight these younger athletes coming up in the light heavyweight division.
The inexperience of Victor Petrino is the biggest factor to think about in this matchup. Does Smith have anything to present the 26-year-old that can throw him off his game plan?
Smith vs Petrino Betting Picks and Prediction
The official Smith vs. Petrino betting pick for this weekend is to take this fight to go to a decision at +200.
If you are looking at money lines, it doesn’t make sense to bet on Petrino and Smith has too many question marks to confidently bet on him. We think Petrino will get his hand raised, but Smith is tough enough and crafty enough to get himself out of bad situations and wrestle to survive rounds.
You can cheer for Anthony Smith to survive and do well enough to force this to a 15 minutes decision. Smith doesn’t go there too often, but he might want to after feeling the power from this kid.
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