One of the most interesting upcoming UFC fights this weekend is this matchup between lightweights Diego Ferreira and Mateusz Rebecki on the main card in St. Louis. Ferreira has had his struggles in the UFC, but he is coming off a huge win and going up against a highly-touted Polish prospect in Mateusz Rebecki.
Read more for insight on this lightweight matchup set for this weekend on the UFC fight schedule, along with the official Ferreira vs Rebecki best bets to make.
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Fight Details and Betting Picks
Ferreira vs. Rebecki Information
Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki
Location of the fight: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Date & Time: May 11, 2024. 7 PM ET Main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Ferreira vs. Rebecki Picks
- Pick: Rebecki to win in round 3 (+700).
Our picks are based on analysis, not guarantees. Bet on sports at your own risk. If you think that you need help please visit NCPG website or call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Last Fight Record
Ferreira is coming off a brutal KO victory over Michael Johnson in May 2023.
Rebecki is coming off a first-round submission win over Roosevelt Roberts at UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden last November.
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Ferreira vs. Rebecki Betting Analysis
Diego Ferreira
Ferreira is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 18-5, including 4 TKO/KO wins and 7 submissions at the age of 39. He is a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ and trains out of Fortis MMA. He has multiple medals at the Nogi BJJ Championships and won a lightweight title in MMA in the Legacy FC organization. Diego Ferreira also has 5 post-fight bonuses in the UFC. Ferreira is listed as a 5’9” orthodox fighter with a 74” reach. He averages 4.66 significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC while absorbing 3.42 per minute. He adds just 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 0.7 submission average. Ferreira also has a modest 63% takedown defense over his UFC career.
Mateusz Rebecki
Rebecki is a Polish professional MMA fighter with a 19-1 record, including 9 TKO/KO wins and 7 submission wins. He has 10 first-round finishes since turning professional in 2014 and he’s currently on a 16-fight winning streak. He is a high-level BJJ fighter, winning two Polish ADCC and three European BJJ championships.
Rebecki is a 5’7” southpaw with a 66” reach. In his first four fights in the UFC, Rebecki averages 5.31 significant strikes landed and only 2.01 absorbed per minute. He also gets 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 1.6 submission average.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.
Ferreira vs. Rebecki Betting Preview
To make the Ferreira vs Rebecki best bets this weekend, you need to understand how the betting lines work and how the styles of both men will clash in the octagon on Saturday night.
According to the available UFC odds, Ferreira has his work cut out for him as the +385 underdog going up against the -510 betting favorite Rebecki. This fight is favored to end inside the distance at -205 as well.
The betting lines will make a big difference in what Ferreira vs. Rebecki betting picks you choose to bet on because the odds give each pick value. When there’s a big favorite like this, you must get creative to find a bet worth putting money on.
This matchup is very favorable for Rebecki because he is the younger, stronger, and more explosive fighter. At 155 lbs, it’s very difficult for a 39-year-old fighter to have success in today’s MMA.
Ferreira is a crafty veteran of the game with tricky stance switches and awkward timing on the feet, along with dangerous submission attacks on the ground. He has struggled with his takedown defense against strong wrestlers, though.
Rebecki is the hungry, fresh-faced rising prospect who might end up being a dark horse in this stacked lightweight division. He takes down opponents and grinds them out with ground-and-pound until they give him their back or he snatches an arm for a submission.
Ferreira vs Rebecki Best Bets and Prediction
Making UFC bets can be very difficult because the best always fight the best–anything can happen. When there’s a big betting favorite like this matchup, it’s even more difficult because you need to find value in a bet.
The Ferreira vs. Rebecki betting prediction for this weekend is that Rebecki will get his hand raised after simply outclassing Ferreira over 15 minutes. The Ferreira vs Rebecki best bets to make are taking Rebecki to win inside the distance at -150 and/or taking Rebecki to win in round 3 at +700.
Picking Rebecki to win in round three is a risky bet, but the odds are worth it if you want to add another pick to your betting slip. This could play out exactly like that with Rebecki taking Ferreira down and grinding him out until a stoppage due to ground-and-pound in the third.
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