One of the key fights on the main card of UFC 283 will be a top UFC women’s flyweight bout between former title challenger Lauren Murphy (16-5) and former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade (23-9). With both of these women being fan favorites and savages in the octagon, this fight should be great.
Read further for a Murphy vs Andrade prediction and best bets for this weekend at UFC 283.
Murphy vs. Andrade Information
UFC 283: Lauren Murphy (16-5) vs Jessica Andrade (23-9)
Location of the fight: Jeunesse Arena. Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Date: Saturday, 21st January 21. 6:00 PM CST.
How to Watch: ESPN+
Recent Scores
Murphy is coming off of an impressive decision victory over MMA legend Miesha Tate last July.
Andrade is making her first appearance since last April, where she finished Amanda Lemos with a submission-of-the-year nominee.
Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade Analysis
Before we make a proper Murphy vs Andrade prediction, we need to break down both these women and the styles they bring to the octagon. What could the potential outcomes of this massive flyweight bout be?
Murphy Looks and Acts Like a Much Younger Version of Herself
Murphy is a 39-year-old that seems to be in the best shape of her life. Her athletic ability might diminish as time passes, but she looks and acts like a much younger version of herself. She is 6-1 in her last seven fights, with only the TKO loss to Shevchenko blemishing that stretch starting in 2019.
Murphy also has nine finishes in her career while only being finished once. She will enjoy a 5-inch reach and 4-inch height advantage over Andrade this weekend. This could be used to her advantage as Andrade fights at a more significant weight class.
Murphy’s style of fighting is engaging. She won’t blow you away with any sort of speed or strength, or slick skills, but she is smart and knows how to win fights. If she shows up in shape and ready for a war, her mediocre 3.84 strikes landed to 4.45 strikes absorbed per minute ratio won’t even be a factor.
One of the key stats to look at for Murphy is her 71% takedown defense over her UFC career. This will probably come into play while facing the pressure of Andrade on Saturday.
Andrade is Willing to Take a Shot to Give One Back Harder
Jessica Andrade is undoubtedly one of the most exciting fights in the UFC. It seems like she either finishes the fight or gets finished. She reminds me a lot of the female version of Justin Gaethje. She throws strikes with bad intentions and is willing to take a shot to give one back harder.
Andrade averages an incredible 6.16 strikes landed per minute and 5.16 strikes absorbed. On top of that, she has averaged over two takedowns per 15 minutes inside the octagon. It is no secret that she wants to overwhelm her opponents with the volume and pressure of the offensive attacks she possesses.
When you see Andrade is going to be in a UFC fight, you watch. She will be in front of her home country fans, and she will be able to feed off that energy. Make no mistake. Murphy will be ready to play spoiler in Brazil as well.
Odds Breakdown
Lauren Murphy
According to UFC odds, Murphy is a pretty significant betting underdog at +385. This will be her 5th straight UFC fight where she is the underdog. She is 3-1 in the prior four fights. These odds also make her the most considerable underdog she has been outside of her title fight with Shevchenko and her UFC debut against Sara McMann.
Jessica Andrade
Andrade is the -460 betting favorite going into UFC 283 this weekend. She hasn’t been this big of a favorite since 2017, when she was -700 in the closing lines for her bout against Angela Hill. The most interesting line is the prop bet for Andrade to win inside the distance at +105, compared to Murphy to do the same with the line set at +900.
Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade Betting Pick and Prediction
UFC predictions are the most difficult to make out of major sports. You can’t gauge momentum, injuries, or anything day-to-day because it is a mystery to everyone but the two people fighting in the cage on a given night.
On top of that, anything can happen inside the octagon as well. These odds that we have to make a solid Murphy vs Andrade prediction make it very difficult.
The smart bet to make here is Andrade winning this one. Her moneyline might be less valuable on the card, but she has the ability to get this job done. If you want a pick with a higher value, go for Andrade to win by decision at +140.
I’m going with a decision win because of my trust in Murphy. She is on this new journey within the sport of MMA, where it seems as if she is in the best shape of her life mentally and physically. It is great to see, making it hard not to root for her.
Murphy would need to take advantage of any moment given where she can compromise with Andrade in the fight on Saturday. In fact, for the reasons stated above, the second best bet to make is a Murphy moneyline pick. She has the energy and heart needed to win a big upset like this one.
Bet responsibly, but if you want a big underdog pick for UFC 283, this is the one to make.
Pick 1: Andrade winning by decision +140
Pick 2: Murphy moneyline +385
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