We already have some last-minute drama in the first UFC Fight Night of 2023. Kelvin Gastelum was supposed to headline this event, but Sean Strickland will be headlining back-to-back UFC events due to injury. Strickland will meet a dangerous rising contender in Nassourdine Imavov this Saturday night.
Read further for a complete fight analysis and an Imavov vs Strickland prediction this weekend.
Last Fight Record
Imavov is coming off of a decision victory over Joaquin Buckley in September.
Strickland is fresh off of a 5-round decision loss to Jared Cannonier less than a month ago.
UFC Event Information
Nassourdine Imavov vs Sean Strickland
Location of the fight: UFC Apex Center. Las Vegas, NV.
Date: Saturday, 14th January. 6:00 PM CST.
How to watch: ESPN+
Imavov vs. Strickland Betting Analysis
Nassourdine Imavov
Imavov is 4-1 inside the UFC and has a 12-3 record in professional MMA. He will have a 2-inch height advantage over Strickland, but they both have about the same reach. Imavov has nine finishes out of his 12 wins, including 5 TKO/KO and four submissions. He has only been finished via submission back in his professional debut in 2016.
The French middleweight has averages 4.08 strikes landed per minute inside the octagon. He only absorbs 2.43 strikes per minute, showing how dominant of a striker he can be. Imavov had back-to-back TKO finishes in 2021 in the UFC.
Imavov’s wrestling has been his struggle, losing to Phil Hawes because he got taken down four times and had rounds stolen from him on the scorecards. He only has a 23% takedown accuracy but backs it up with a solid 76% takedown defense. Wrestling and grappling have been a big focus in his recent training camps.
Sean Strickland
Strickland is one of the biggest savages in martial arts. He proves it again by taking this fight on short notice for five rounds and less than a month after his last primary event fight. He is taking a huge risk by this, but he must be confident in how his body feels.
The high-volume striker averages 5.59 strikes landed per minute and absorbed 4.18 strikes a minute. Strickland will walk down his opponents and use his beautiful jab and head movement to break down a fighter throughout a fight.
His secret weapon is grappling. Strickland averages 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 62% clip. He also has an impressive 85% takedown defense. This is something to look for in him because he might want to come out on top. Wrestling is a big weapon he can use against anybody in the division.
Updates
Kelvin Gastelum pulled out Monday night of fight week due to injury. Sean Strickland has stepped up and taken this fight on short notice. The fight will be held at 205 lbs.
Nassourdine Imavov vs Sean Strickland Betting Preview
Before getting to an Imavov vs Strickland prediction, we need to break down the betting odds for this matchup. UFC odds have this as a pick ‘em fight at some sportsbooks, and some have Strickland already trending as the slight favorite.
As this is being made, the odds are jumping back and forth like crazy. With this being basically a pick ‘em fight with both guys at around -115 odds, it makes it pretty interesting. Strickland has question marks about how his body feels and how he was treating it through the holidays.
If you know anything about Strickland, he seems like a guy who doesn’t celebrate holidays and was probably trying to find any sparring partner through them. With this fight at 205 lbs, you have to assume Strickland will be in good shape and ready to fight.
Imavov has been around these odds for literally every UFC fight he has. So he is no stranger to tough matchups and close fights.
Nassourdine Imavov vs Sean Strickland Betting Prediction
UFC picks are very difficult to make in general, but when you get a short-notice, 5-round primary event fight at a catchweight, it gets even more challenging to make good bets on. This is a fight that many bettors will stay away from, but we have a good grasp on what could be an excellent pick to make.
The final Imavov vs Strickland prediction is that Strickland will bounce back and shock many people by getting a win this weekend. This goes against many MMA betting experts’ rules when making picks, but something about Strickland’s attitude after his last fight shows that he will be ready to win at all costs.
Look for wrestling to be a big factor in this one. Imavov will have Strickland standing in his straight-up stance with his hands up and marching him down; the takedown will look very open for him.
But the key is how elite of a grappler Strickland is. He is going to be able to stuff takedowns, and also he will be willing to get takedowns of his own to secure a victory. Clearly, he is sick of leaving the fights in the judges’ hands, and he just wants to win.
Strickland will start strong and aggressive to try to put this kid away. And if that doesn’t work, he will use his wrestling and grind out a dominant decision win.
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