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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos Betting Analysis and Prediction

At the first UFC event of 2023, an upcoming star bantamweight will face off against a battle-tested veteran. Umar Nurmagomedov (15-0) will meet Raoni Barcelos (17-3) in the octagon this Saturday in Las Vegas.

Read along for a full Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos prediction and betting analysis before you place your bets this weekend. 

Last Fight Record

Nurmagomedov won a unanimous decision over Nathan Maness in his last appearance in the octagon back in June of 2022. Barcelos is fresh off a big bounce-back victory over Trevin Jones in October; coming after dropping two-straight fights.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos Information

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos

Location of the fight: UFC Apex. Las Vegas, NV.

Date: Saturday. 14th January. 6:00 PM CST.

How to watch: ESPN+

Nurmagomedov vs. Barcelos Betting Analysis

Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is making his awaited return to the UFC this weekend after taking seven months off to train and support his teammates having some big fights. He is yet another massive prospect in that camp, led by his cousin Khabib. 

He is undefeated in his professional career, with one KO and seven submission finishes. Nurmagomedov has two submission victories within his first three UFC fights. In dominant fashion, he has accumulated an average of 4.35 strikes landed and 0.37 strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. 

Where Nurmagomedov’s skills really shine is in the grappling department. He averages 5.02 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. This will always be his main weapon in a fight.

Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is a very impressive veteran of mixed martial arts. Out of his 17 career wins, he has eight KO victories and two submissions. He has lost only once via finish, and that was a submission back in 2014. He is ready to give Nurmagomedov his toughest test yet.

The Brazilian is a high-pressure fighter that throws a lot of strikes in volume. He averages 5.82 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.94 strikes. His game plan will most likely be to put pressure on Nurmagomedov and keep him on his back foot.


Both fighters are healthy and ready to go in fight week. No injuries reported to the NSAC.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos Betting Preview

To make a proper Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos prediction, we must first break down the betting lines and preview what could be the best plays to make. 

Right now, Nurmagomedov is a massive betting favorite at -1000. This is something that I personally think should never be the case in mixed martial arts. This sport is way too unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given night. 

Barcelos has tons of value at +700. He has fought well as an underdog in his career, with wins over Kurt Holobaugh and Said Nurmagomedov. You know that being this big of an underdog gives Barcelos a chip on his shoulder, and he will be ready to go this weekend.

UFC odds are very tough to understand when you see lines like this. Yes, Nurmagomedov is a dominant fighter and has tons of potential, but this is his biggest test in the UFC, and he is only 26 years old. It will be very interesting to see how this fight plays out. 

With virtually no value in betting on the favorite here, you are kind of forced to only look at prop bets and the underdog if you are willing to put money down on any of these lines.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos Betting Prediction

UFC predictions are never an easy thing to do, no matter what the matchup is. In this one, it is easy to make a Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos prediction in favor of the -1000 fighter.

Nurmagomedov should be able to get the job done, but let’s see what we can do to make some money this weekend. 

Lines to look at would be Nurmagomedov to win by submission (+350), the under 2.5 rounds (+195), and even just the Moneyline for Barcelos if you have extra money and want one longshot bet for this event. 

+700 for a successful fighter to win is always a solid pick to make. Nurmagomedov has been in the gym a lot with a great team, and he will be the bigger man in the cage on Saturday, so it is wise to lean toward making a bet on him.

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