To close out the 2022 UFC fight schedule, UFC Vegas 66 is coming this weekend with a card full of great matchups. Lightweights Rafa Garcia (13-3) and Maheshate (9-1) will face each other in one of the best fights on the preliminary card.
Let’s break this fight down and come up with the best Garcia vs. Maheshate prediction to bet on this weekend.
Last Fight Record
Garcia is coming off of a tough loss against Drakkar Klose in July.
Maheshate made his UFC debut in June at UFC Singapore, winning via first-round KO over Steve Garcia.
Garcia vs. Maheshate Betting Analysis
Rafa Garcia
Rafa Garcia has had a tough go in the UFC in his young career. He was undefeated before making his debut and now holds a 2-3 record in the promotion.
Garcia’s Averaging Numbers
Garcia brings a heavy grappling attack into the fight, with 8 career submission victories.
Garcia averages 13:58 of fight time in the octagon. Only one of his fights has ended inside the distance, and that was his submission victory over Jesse Ronson in April.
Garcia’s Struggle
So far, he has struggled in the striking department, averaging only 3.26 strikes landed per minute compared to absorbing 4.75 strikes. His striking accuracy is a low 38% as well.
Where this Mexican fighter excels is in the grappling department. Garcia has averaged 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC at a 42% accuracy. His takedown defense is also at an impressive 76% clip.
Maheshate
With only one fight into his UFC career, there isn’t much analytics to look at for this 23-year-old Chinese prospect.
He had a great comeback victory in his Contender Series fight, which led to his debut in Singapore, where he sparked his opponent in less than 2 minutes.
Maheshate Height’s Advantage
Maheshate will have a 5” height advantage over Garcia on Saturday. Maheshate is averaging 3.45 strikes landed per minute and also absorbing 3.39 strikes.
These numbers are off because he only has two fights on record, and the first one was a slow start for him in which he came back and won a decision.
Zero Grappling Statitics
Maheshate also has zero grappling statistics inside the UFC. He will have to show the level of wrestling defense he has against an opponent who will try to take him down throughout the entire fight.
His size advantage and speed and power will be the big factor in this fight.
Rafa Garcia vs. Maheshate Betting Prediction
UFC picks can be tough to make, no matter the matchup. But this one is especially difficult because we have a young, unknown fighter coming in and fighting someone with a completely different fighting style than him.
Usually, the strong grapplers will get the nod from the oddsmakers in these close matchups, but something about this 23-year-old prospect from China shows a lot of upside for a bet this weekend.
With Maheshate being in plus-UFC odds, showing the dynamic athleticism and power he has in the octagon already, he is primed to have a great performance in Las Vegas, a place he already has fought.
Who to Bet On?
The final Garcia vs. Maheshate prediction will be Maheshate via TKO/KO. He is going to have the power and speed to hurt Garcia badly in the cage on Saturday.
His grappling will be tested, but he seems physically gifted and disciplined. It’s easy to assume he has gone through the proper training camp to prepare for a fighter like Garcia.
Since the odds are so valuable for him, you don’t have to do a method of victory prop bet to make money.
UFC Pick: The +115 odds for Maheshate to get his hands raised is plenty to make a play on him this weekend.
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