Kicking off the final month of the 2022 UFC fight schedule, there is a UFC Fight Night event in front of a live crowd in Orlando, Florida.
One of the key fights on the main card will be between heavyweights Tai Tuivasa (14-4) and Sergei Pavlovich (16-1). These fighters are ranked #4 and #5 in the UFC heavyweight division.
Last Fight Record
Tuivasa is coming off of a KO loss in his last main event bout against Ciryl Gane in France. Pavlovich is fresh off a KO victory inside one minute over UFC legend Derrick Lewis.
Tuivasa vs. Pavlovich Betting Analysis
Tuivasa has an interesting fighting style for someone that is fighting at the elite level against the best heavyweights in the world.
He simply just likes to scrap. His natural fighting skill has turned into a much more well-rounded style over his years in the UFC.
He averages 4.12 strikes landed per minute but also absorbs 4.24 strikes per minute. Tuivasa has 14 career wins, and 13 of them are via knockout.
This is an incredible stat for someone’s career. His only decision win was against former champion Andrei Arlovski in 2018.
Tuiavasa’s Fighting Style
The biggest part of Tuivasa’s fighting style is his calmness in the octagon. With this kind of approach to a cage fight, he is able to take punches and be dangerous at any given moment, even when he is hurt badly.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich betting analysis needs to mention the things we can’t see on paper that Tuivasa has.
Pavlovich is one of the scariest rising contenders in the UFC. Out of his 16 career wins, 13 are from knockout.
Pavlovich Fighting Averaging Time
And every single one of those 13 KOs has come in the first round. His UFC fight average time is only 2:31.
The #5 ranked contender has the style of hunting down his opponent early on, and when they run out of room, he attacks.
He has the power to put anyone in the world to sleep with one punch. His pressure is what really allows him to shine so consistently in the octagon.
Even with messed up stats because of his short career, averaging 6.83 strikes landed per minute is special. Pavlovich comes out of the gates strong and looks to put his opponents away as early as possible.
Another big analytic factor to keep an eye on is the reach that Pavlovich has. He has a 9-inch advantage over Tuivasa, and that will prove to be a tough task for Tuivasa to reach his chin.
UFC Injury Report
No injuries were reported in the lead-up to this fight.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich Betting Preview
UFC odds have Tuivasa as the underdog at +170 going into fight week for this one. Pavlovich is the -200 betting underdog for his first top-5 fight.
Of course, with these two dangerous fellas, the over 1.5 rounds is in plus-odds. The interesting trend about these two guys is where their knockouts happen.
Tuivasa has finished a lot of guys in the second round, and Pavlovich hasn’t even gotten out of the first round, it seems like.
Pavlovich Beating the Odds
Pavlovich winning inside the distance is at -170. That is a line for that prop bet you don’t see a lot. Oddsmakers have a lot of confidence in the ability Pavlovich has to finish Tuivasa before the judges get to have a say.
The most interesting prop bet to keep an eye on is for either fighter to win in the first round. According to betting trends, both of these guys must not like to be in the cage for more than 5 minutes.
Tuivasa vs Pavlovich betting previews aren’t done until you go over the strategy and style of both fighters.
Tuivasa will most likely need to be durable and patient in this one. Pavlovich is always patient but usually lets his hands go as early as possible.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich Betting Predictions
As we know, making UFC picks is one of the toughest things to do when the odds are as close as this.
Even though Tuivasa is a +170 underdog, he has the skill and the power to finish this fight, even if he is losing every minute of the fight.
The final Tuivasa vs Pavlovich betting prediction is Tuivasa winning via KO. This is not necessarily a fight I would bet on because of the wild nature of heavyweights in the UFC. But if you need to make a play on it, you might as well take the underdog.
Tuivasa is going to weather an early storm of punches from Pavlovich and then end up having a clinch up against the fence.
Who to Bet On?
After Tuivasa damages Pavlovich up against the cage, Tuivasa is going to start landing calf kicks.
Pavlovich is going to start getting frustrated, especially if this fight goes into the second round and Tuivasa has taken all his power punches, his calf is beaten up, and the crowd is booing them while they are clinched up against the fence.
These are big moments that Pavlovich has never experienced, and that gives Tuivasa the edge. He will finish Pavlovich in the second round and cement his place in the top 5.
UFC Pick: Pavlovich (-170)