UFC Fight Night Lightweight Bout: Terrance Mckinney vs. Erick Gonzalez Betting Analysis and Predictions

On August 6, UFC Fight Night is back at the APEX with a lot of exciting UFC schedule shows prospects scrapping in the octagon. In the lightweight division, Terrance McKinney (12-4) will be taking on Erick Gonzalez (14-6) on the preliminary card this Saturday.

Fighters Previous Scoreboards

Terrance McKinney is coming off his first UFC loss against a tough opponent in Drew Dober. Erick Gonzalez made his UFC debut in his last fight and he lost via KO to UFC legend, Jim Miller.

McKinney vs. Gonzalez Betting Analysis

McKinney Analysis

Terrance McKinney is one of the most exciting UFC prospects and has made a stir within the lightweight division so far.

He was on a 5-fight first-round finish streak where his fights didn’t even make it past the 2-minute mark. This looked like the case again against Drew Dober, but Dober showed his durability and came back to win.

McKinney’s Background

McKinney is as exciting as you can get as a fighter. He has lots of weapons in the striking game, along with the ability to lock up submissions to finish the fight on the ground.

His dynamic skills and speed really give him an advantage in the first round because he comes out so fast looking to finish. 

Gonzalez Analysis

Gonzalez is a really tough fighter that can go to war in the octagon on any given night. He showed a lot of confidence in his UFC debut, which might have led to his loss against Jim Miller.

He was overextending a lot in his strikes with not much head movement and his hands down. Gonzalez learned that this doesn’t work as well in the UFC as on the regional scene.

Massive Underdog

It will be interesting to see how he plans to attack McKinney, being such a massive underdog according to MMA odds.

He will need to be much more careful when stepping into range and use a lot of fight IQ to weather the storm that is most likely coming his way early.

  • McKinney told the media he is looking to prove the haters wrong with another spectacular performance on Saturday night.
  • Gonzalez is confident after a great training camp and weight cut. He says he will “prove why he is the better fighter in there on Saturday.”

McKinney vs. Gonzalez Betting Preview

According to UFC odds, McKinney is as much as a -1000 favorite at many sportsbooks. This is something you really don’t see in the sport of MMA.

These odds make UFC picks pretty much impossible to find value in unless you want to throw a play down on the underdog just in case.

At +600 for Gonzalez, you’re starting to get into Matt Serra vs. GSP range. This might be something to look into, just because MMA is so unpredictable. 

UFC Prop Bets

The prop bets will be something to look for in this one. McKinney is -200 to win in round 1, which is pretty rare to find that prop having that line.

The over 1.5 rounds is +120. That is a tough line but if you trust Gonzalez’s chin and durability, this might be a play to look for.

McKinney Vs. Gonzalez Betting Predictions

UFC picks with this kind of line are really tough to make. McKinney has absolutely no value for the regular sports bettor. I think that McKinney will finish Gonzalez in a spectacular fashion.

It will be interesting to see if McKinney changes his style a little because of how his last fight went or if he will come out to put Gonzalez away, knowing he won’t be able to hang with him as Drew Dober did.

Who to Bet On?

Look for McKinney to be slightly more patient and catch Gonzalez coming in. I think Gonzalez is going to resort to making this a firefight once he gets touched early, and McKinney will clip him and put him away in the first round.

A prop bet will give you a better chance of getting into the ‘plus’ money range and actually having some value in picking McKinney. 

UFC Pick: McKinney by TKO/KO in the first round (+140)

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