UFC 305: Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Analysis & Picks

An interesting matchup on this weekend’s UFC 305 main card is this heavyweight bout between Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. These two are on different trajectories but meet in the middle to see who will move closer to the title picture.

Read more for the official Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik fight prediction before you place any bets on this weekend’s event.

UFC . August 17, 2024. 10 PM ET Main card start | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Rozenstruik 14-5-0

@

Tuivasa 15-7-0

Pick Rozenstruik -220

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Last Fight Record

• Tuivasa is coming off his fourth-straight loss, a first-round submission to Marcin Tybura in March.
• Rozenstruik is coming off an impressive TKO win over Shamil Gaziev in a March main event.

Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Odds

Moneyline:Total:

-220O:1½+165

+180U:1½-200

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Moneyline:Total:

-220O:1½+160

+185U:1½-200

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Moneyline:Total:

-226O —

+179U —

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Moneyline:Total:

-240O:1½+151

+174U:1½-205

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Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Analysis

Tai Tuivasa

• Tuivasa is an Australian fighter with a professional MMA record of 14-7, including 13 KO victories.
• He has won 5 post-fight bonuses in the UFC and ranked as high as a top 3 contender in the heavyweight division.
• Tai Tuivasa is listed as a 6’2” southpaw brawler with a 75” reach at 31 years old.
• He averages 3.96 significant strikes landed and 5.05 absorbed per minute in the octagon. He also holds a 57% takedown defense according to the UFC Fighters.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a Surinamese professional mixed martial artist with a record of 14-5, including 13 wins by KO.
• He has a background in kickboxing, holding a professional record of 76-8-1 with 64 KOs.
• In the UFC, he is the only fighter to have three knockouts of 30 seconds or less in history and has three Performance of the Night bonuses under his belt.
• Rozenstruik is a 6’2” kickboxer with a 78” reach at 36 years old.
• He averages 3.44 significant strikes landed and 2.78 absorbed per minute in the UFC. He also holds a solid 75% takedown defense.

Updates

Both UFC and ESPN had a clean injury report going into this bout.
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Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Preview

To make the most accurate Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik fight prediction, we need to understand the styles of both fighters and how the betting lines are looking going into this UFC figths this weekend.

According to UFC odds, Tuivasa is the +185 underdog on his home turf against the -220 betting favorite in Rozenstruik. This fight is obviously favored to end inside the distance at a whopping -600 odds, which means there’s a ton of value in this lasting the full 15 minutes, but that’s a risky bet.

Stylistically, this is a very tough matchup for Tuivasa. The guy is a brawler. He has a decent front-leg game he plays, landing low-leg kicks and trying to control the distance and screw up his opponent’s rhythm like that; but it’s mostly about him closing distance and landing big haymakers.

Rozenstruik is a world-class kickboxer who has mastered the art of controlling distance as a big man with not a ton of athletic ability. He has great low kicks and plays a lot of different chess UFC past events, especially the longer the fight goes on. But he also has the power and hand speed to end the fight in seconds.

The fight lore about Tuivasa’s iron chin might be over now, as well. He has been finished twice by KO and he can be hurt to the head like everyone else. Making UFC picks today in the heavyweight division can basically be looked at as a coin flip. The fight can end at any moment.

Tuivasa vs Rozenstruik Betting Prediction

After a lot of detailed previewing of this heavyweight matchup, the official Tuivasa vs Rozesntruik fight prediction is that Rozenstruik will get his hand raised and continue his trek back up the heavyweight rankings. 

The kickboxing ability of Rozenstruik is too impressive to bet against in this matchup. Rozenstruik is a guy to bet on against anybody until he gets to the very top of the division where these UFC matchups get tough for a pure kickboxer.

It’s unfortunate because he’s so easy to root for, but Tuivasa has lost the trust of the sports bettor and it’s time to move on from him. He is still so young, so hopefully he can take some time off and refocus to jumpstart his career again after a fifth-straight loss. Hope you enjoyed our betting odds analysis and good luck with your UFC betting Picks!