What was supposed to be a top 15 featherweight battle. But Bryce Mitchell hurting his back and pulling out has caused a short-notice matchup between the undefeated Movsar Evloev and UFC debutant Diego Lopes. Lopes is stepping up on 5-days notice to try his luck at defeating the No.10 ranked featherweight.
Read further for the complete Evloev vs Lopes betting analysis and prediction. Ahead of making UFC picks for this weekend event on the UFC schedule.
Evloev vs. Lopes Information
Movsar Evloev vs Diego Lopes
Location of the fight: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey.
Date and Time: May 6, 2023. 10 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Evloev is coming off of a decision victory over UFC veteran Dan Ige is June of 2022.
Lopes is going to ride the momentum of a 2nd round TKO win in his last bout against Angel Rodriguez in the Lux fight League promotion, last November.
Evloev vs. Lopes Betting Analysis
Movsar Evloev
When you look at Evloev’s record, it’s tough not to be impressed. Anyone that can be unbeaten in professional MMA for 16 fights, they are a problem. Yes, he hasn’t faced any of the top 15 guys in the UFC featherweight division. But his wrestling ability is tough to deny.
Evloev is 6-0 in the UFC, but all of those wins have been via decision. You can compare Evloev’s rise through the UFC rankings to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s through the mid-2010s. There haven’t been any big names, but that is most likely because of how dominant he is at wrestling. Evloev averages a whopping 4.83 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in the octagon.
Diego Lopes
This is a tough fight to breakdown. UFC news broke on Tuesday of UFC 288 fight week that Bryce Mitchell was out. And Diego Lopes is stepping up on short notice to make his UFC debut. Obviously, this isn’t a fun matchup for the newcomer.
The only real analytics on Lopes is that he is a 28-year-old Brazilian with power and good grappling skills–according to his 20-5 record and an impressive 18 finishes. He will also have a decent size advantage over Evloev, listed as 4 inches taller than his Russian counterpart.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC or New Jersey Athletic Commission.
Evloev vs. Lopes Betting Preview
The Evloev vs Lopes betting preview is tough to prepare because of the short-notice nature of this matchup, and the lack of information on Lopes.
There are no betting lines or UFC odds available for this fight at this time, but there will be shortly this fight week–most likely by Wednesday afternoon. We can easily predict that Evloev is going to be the big betting favorite in this one against the newcomer.
The fight looks like it will still be contested at 145 lbs, so there will also be a question mark on how well the weight cut goes for Lopes. Lopes hasn’t competed since last summer, so hopefully, he is going to be in shape and ready to go.
It will be tough to justify a Lopes moneyline pick, even if he is a massive underdog. But you should keep an eye out on the method of victory props and what kind of line sportsbooks have for a Lopes submission.
Evloev vs. Lopes Betting Prediction
Like stated above, a Lopes submission seems like the only justifiable route to take if you want to place a bet on the underdog in this matchup. The footage of Lopes on Dana White’s Contender Series is enough for anyone to see that Evloev is going to have an easier time wrestling than he was against Bryce Mitchell.
Lopes is the type of grappler that allows himself to get to his back because he is so dangerous there. He has tons of submissions from the back–mostly by grabbing limbs and scoring arm bars and knee bars over his MMA career,
- Even with the submission skills of Lopes, the official Evloev vs Lopes betting prediction is that Evloev will get his hand raised on Saturday night.
- It will most likely be another decision win since Evloev doesn’t have the best finishes abilities, and Lopes is sharp on the ground.
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