In the co-main event of this International Fight Week event at UFC 290, we get to watch a fan-favorite bantamweight champion Brandon Moreno as he tries to seek revenge for losses earlier in his career against Alexandre Pantoja. This is the perfect fight for the biggest event of the 2023 UFC schedule.
Read further for the Moreno vs Pantoja betting analysis and prediction ahead of making your picks this weekend.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Information
Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja
Location of the fight: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Date and Time: Saturday, July 08. 10:00 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Moreno is coming off closing out the octagon with a win over the dangerous Deiveson Figueiredo.
Pantoja last fought almost a year ago and won via submission in the first-round, over Alex Perez.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Betting Analysis
Brandon Moreno
You really can’t say much more about Brandon Moreno. His career story of being cut by the UFC and then becoming one of the biggest stars in the sport of MMA is nothing short of incredible. At only 29 years old, Moreno has a professional record of 21-6-2 with 16 finishes.
Moreno averages 3.55 sig. strikes landed per minute and only 3.19 sig. strikes absorbed. He also lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes inside the UFC octagon over his career. To go along with the wrestling stats, Moreno has a 67% takedown defense.
Alexandre Pantoja
Pantoja is a 33-year-old Brazilian fighter that trains out of American Top Team for his camps. He has a professional record of 25-5 with 18 finishes. An interesting thing about Pantoja’s career is he beat both Moreno and Kai Kara-France in the TUF tournament back in 2016.
The Brazilian brawler loves to get in crazy exchanges where he usually finds himself on top. This is a dangerous fighting style because even the best in the world can be beaten by Pantoja at any moment. Pantoja averages 4.25 sig. strikes landed and 3.38 absorbed per minute. He also averaged 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.
Injuries & Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC. This is the rematch for these two. The first meeting ended in a unanimous decision victory for Pantoja in 2018.
Moreno vs. Pantoja Betting Preview
According to the available UFC odds, Moreno is coming in as the -190 betting favorite over the man who has beaten him twice before. Pantoja is obviously the underdog with odds at +165. This shows you how much Moreno has improved and how great he is in the oddsmaker’s eyes.
A very interesting line right now is the under 3.5 rounds at +140. There is a very good possibility that this fight doesn’t get into the championship rounds. Both men have the skillset to finish the other.
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
Another interesting prop bet is this fight going the distance at +120. So this proves that oddsmakers don’t really believe that this fight will reach the scorecards. Even after the finishing ability shown by Pantoja, Moreno has better odds to finish the fight at +150 compared to Pantoja’s +300.
The Moreno vs Pantoja betting lines are kind of surprising until you remember how great Moreno is and how much he has improved. The confidence in that kid has made him literally the biggest Mexican MMA star that has ever lived. He beat a seemingly unbeatable Deiveson Figueiredo twice, then finished Kai Kara-France with a brutal body kick.
Moreno vs. Pantoja Betting Prediction
If you aren’t new to sports betting and MMA, you already know how difficult it is to make correct UFC picks. Even with all the research and debating, no one knows what is going to happen once those octagon gates get locked.
- After careful consideration, the official Moreno vs Pantoja betting prediction is that Moreno get’s the job done and gets his hand raised on Saturday night.
This one is very tough to pick because Pantoja has the confidence that he knows he can finish Moreno and beat him.
Moreno is just too good, and you need to trust his preparation and mindset. He wants to prove that he’s the best in the world, and you know he wants a win over Pantoja to even the score. If you are 100% on Pantoja, the only way he is going to win is a finish–so cash out on a prop bet in that case.
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