The next UFC fight to break down is this unreal middleweight bout on the main card of a stacked UFC 290 this weekend. Former champion Robert Whittaker is set to welcome South African Dricus Du Plessis into the top 5 of a top-heavy division.
Read further for the complete Whittaker vs Du Plessis betting analysis and prediction ahead of making your bets for this weekend’s card.
Whittaker vs. Du Plessis Information
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis
Location of the fight: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Date and Time: July 08, 2023. 10 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Whittaker is coming off a dominant performance over Marvin Vettori last September.
Du Plessis is fresh off a TKO win over Derek Brunson in March.
Whittaker vs. Du Plessis Betting Analysis
Robert Whittaker
Whittaker is one of the most decorated fighters on the current roster, and he’s only 32 years old. Before we get into the numbers, it must be known that if Adesanya never fought in the UFC, Whittaker is probably still reigning as champion to this day.
“Bobby Knuckles” is 24-6 with 14 finishes under his belt. He will be giving up some size this weekend, but he clearly has the better cardio and movement. Whittaker averages 4.48 sig. strikes landed per minute in the octagon, while only absorbing 3.26. He adds an incredible 61% striking defense as well. On the ground, he holds a great 84% takedown defense and has shown lots of improvement in his offensive grappling.
Dricus Du Plessis
Du Plessis came into the UFC as an exciting prospect with the look and personality of a superstar, with an exciting style to back it up. At 29 years old, he holds a 19-2 professional record with 18 finishes–surprisingly 10 of which are submissions.
The South African is currently rewriting middleweight striking record books with 6.72 sig. strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 3.73. He also averages 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 1.3 submissions in that time frame as well.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
Whittaker vs. Du Plessis Betting Preview
If you take a look at the available UFC odds, Robert Whittaker is the heavily favored fighter at -400. Du Plessis is the +300 betting underdog. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over going at plus-money.
The Whittaker vs Du Plessis betting lines were very predictable in terms of Whittaker being the big favorite, but the surprising thing about this matchup is all the prop bets. Whittaker is +115 to win inside the distance, and Du Plessis is +400 to do the same. You should know right now that the most likely method of victory for Du Plessis is by knockout.
Du Plessis Faces an Uphill Battle
One little tidbit to remember is that Whittaker has been training for 5-round fights since 2016–these 15-minute fights are easy for him. Du Plessis has a severely smaller level of experience than his opponent this weekend.
With this fight broken down in terms of fighting technique from both guys, it’s clear to see that Whittaker is the much sharper fighter and has one of the best fight systems in the UFC. Du Plessis is successful in using his strange techniques and unorthodox style to catch people.
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Betting Prediction
Even though most UFC picks are very difficult to make, this one feels like one of the easiest in a long time for a fight of this magnitude–which might be a bad sign.
- But either way, the official Whittaker vs Du Plessis betting prediction is that Whittaker proves that he is truly levels ahead of everyone else and his only equal is Israel Adesanya.
Whittaker will need to do something amazing, like a spectacular finish, to get that 3rd fight for the belt against Adesanya, though.
Since the moneyline isn’t valuable to pick, the Whittaker winning by decision prop at +175 feels really good. It’s only 15 minutes, and Whittaker hasn’t finished anyone since 2017.
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