The BMF Title is on the line once again as the main event of one of the most anticipated UFC events of the entire year. To close out the show of a stacked card, lightweights Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will meet in a rematch to decide who the new BMF of the company is.
Read more for the breakdown of this matchup and the official Poirier vs Gaethje prediction before making any wagers this weekend.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Information
Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje
Location of the fight: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT.
Date and Time: Saturday, July 29. 10:00 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Poirier last fought in November of 2022 when he submitted Michael Chandler in a war at Madison Square Garden.
Gaethje is coming off an impressive decision victory over a very skilled Rafael Fiziev in March.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Analysis
Dustin Poirier
Poirier is a 29-7 professional fighter that is the former interim lightweight champion. He has an impressive 22 finishes under his belt, including 14 TKO/KOs and eight submissions over his career. At age 34, he is 4-1 in his last five UFC fights.
‘The Diamond’ is a very skilled southpaw brawler that averages 5.51 significant strikes landed and 4.25 absorbed per minute in the octagon. To go along with his striking-first style, he will mix in wrestling–averaging 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage.
Justin Gaethje
Gaethje is a former WSOF champion that came into the UFC with an undefeated record. Now at the age of 34, he has a record of 24-4 after becoming an interim lightweight champion as well but losing twice in undisputed title fights. Twenty of his 24 wins have been a finish (19 KOs).
“The Highlight” is arguably the most fun fighter to watch in UFC history. His striking numbers portray just that, as he averages a ridiculous 7.38 significant strikes landed and 7.66 significant strikes absorbed per minute. That is what taking and giving shots looks like on paper.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
This fight will be contested for the official UFC BMF Title after the previous holder Jorge Masvidal retired.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Preview
Before getting to the Poirier vs Gaethje prediction, we need to scan through the available betting lines for this bout. According to UFC odds, Poirier is closing as the -145 betting favorite over Gaethje at +125.
The over 2.5 round total is surprisingly favored at -140, but the under 3.5 round total is favored at -165. These total lines are kind of confusing, but it basically means oddsmakers believe the fight will be over somewhere in the 3rd round.
This fight is also +200 to make it the full 25 minutes, which does seem pretty impossible at this point with the damage these two inflict on their opponents and the damage they are both willing to take.
A fight that is this close on paper is tough to predict a prop bet on, so the moneyline is probably the best strategy here for sports bettors. Both moneylines have plenty of value to secure the easiest win possible.
From a technical standpoint, the advantage is slightly in Poirier’s favor. Even though he is just as violent as Gaethje and willing to take damage, Poirier is the better boxer and a more calculated fighter.
The keys to the fight are Gaethje’s leg kicks and Poirier’s counterpunching. Whoever can implement those weapons better will have a big advantage as the fight progresses.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Prediction
Making UFC predictions for a fight like this is pretty much impossible. That is an important thing to know when betting on the UFC, especially on fights that have these two guys in it.
- The official Poirier vs Gaethje prediction is that Poirier gets his hand raised on Saturday night.
The reason for that pick is mostly because you just can’t bet against Poirier right now.
He’s seemingly always the better fighter in the octagon, and if he doesn’t make any major mistakes, he should be able to get the job done.
It’s literally a coin flip, though. The high elevation is in Gaethje’s favor, and that is very worrisome for this fight, and it’s strange that Poirier isn’t making that more of a priority than he is. The best bet might just be hitting the under 4.5 rounds and the under 3.5 rounds and cheering for a high-pace fight that ends early.
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