UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Betting Analysis and Prediction

UFC 294 is set for this weekend on the UFC schedule, and it’s a stacked card from top to bottom. Due to a lot of changes last week, former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman is stepping in on short notice to replace Paulo Costa and face Khamzat Chimaev in the middleweight division.

Read more for a closer look at this massive fight and for the official Usman vs Chimaev prediction ahead of placing your bets on this weekend’s card.

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Information

Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev

Location of the fight: Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Date and Time: Saturday, October 21. 2:00 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

• Usman is looking to bounce back from losing two straight title fights to Leon Edwards.
• Chimaev is making his return from another short-notice opponent change at UFC 279, where he beat Kevin Holland via first-round submission.

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Betting Analysis

Kamaru Usman

Usman is a Nigerian-American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 20-3, with nine TKO/KO wins and one submission. At the age of 36, Usman has the third most title fight wins in UFC history (six). He is arguably the most dominant welterweight champion to ever do it in the promotion.

Usman is listed as a 6’0” switch-stance fighter with an impressive 76” reach. This will be his first fight at middleweight in his career. Inside the UFC octagon, he averages 4.46 significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 2.75. He also holds an outstanding 97% takedown defense over his UFC tenure.

Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev is a Chechen mixed martial artist with a professional MMA record of 12-0, with 11 of those wins coming by a finish. Residing in Sweden for a major portion of his life so far, he won three national titles in freestyle wrestling before turning his focus to MMA.

The BJJ purple belt is one of the most dominant rising stars that the UFC has ever seen–pulling in a ton of support from the UAE, where this event is taking place.

“Borz” is listed at 6’2” with a 75” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance, but he looks even bigger when he goes up against welterweights. In the UFC, Chimaev averages a whopping 7.30 significant strikes landed per minute and 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC.

Paulo Costa had to pull out of this fight due to multiple surgeries on his arm.

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Betting Preview

The Usman vs Chimaev prediction can’t be made simply off on what the statistics say. We have to take a closer look at the betting lines and break down the film on both of these world-class fighters.

According to the available UFC odds, Usman is the largest underdog he’s ever been at +270. Chimaev is being favored with -330 odds. This fight is also favored to end inside the 15-minute limit at -200.

Youthful Energy vs. Seasoned Experience

While watching the tape for this matchup, it’s pretty incredible how talented both of these guys are. Chimaev is this young, energetic, dangerous fighter who wants to maul his opponents as quickly as possible. Usman is this seasoned veteran now who has been through so many title fight training camps and has seen so much inside the octagon.

Usman has taken a short-notice fight in Abu Dhabi before, dominating the way he had to against a scary Jorge Masvidal at the time. Now, this week, Usman is in the same boat as Masvidal was when they first met. He has no pressure and doesn’t even have to cut down to 170lbs.

Chimaev is tough to break down through the film because he’s just so much better than everybody. The Gilbert Burns fight proved that he was human, but he took Burns’ best shots and gassed out… but still won.

Usman is a calculated fighter with a world-class jab and very clean striking now at this point of his career. He has always had that high-level MMA wrestling. But the question is whether or not his knees are going to hold up in the octagon when they are tested.

Usman vs. Chimaev Betting Prediction

The process of making UFC picks every weekend can change with certain fights. This is a fight that many fans have wanted to see. But now there’s a wrinkle in it by having it at 185lbs. They both will be better without the weight cut, right?

For the official Usman vs Chimaev prediction, we are still going with Chimaev to get his hand raised. It’s going to be really tough for Usman’s knees to handle the pressure and wrestling of Chimaev. Usman will need to gain a lot of respect early on to be able to keep this fight close.

• UFC 294 Pick: Chimaev to get his hand raised

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