UFC

UFC Fight Night: Calvillo vs. Nunes Betting Analysis and Predictions

Saturday August 13 will serve up an absolute clash of the ages in the ufc schedule for august between Cynthia Calvillo and Nina Nunes.

Meeting in the second bout of the main card of UFC Fight Night San Diego, both ladies are evenly matched, with a lot on the line at similar stages of their careers.

Fight Expectations

Expect this one to be hard fought, and our Calvillo vs. Nunes betting prediction is this one will go right down to the wire as an excellent prelude to Vera vs. Cruz later in the evening how will your MMA odds fair?

Having been delayed a month due to Nunes suffering from an illness, the anticipation has built to a fever pitch for this match-up.

We analyze each fighter’s chances and offer up our betting analysis and predictions based on the UFC odds ahead of this much-awaited fight.

Fighters’ Previous Fights Performance

What makes this match-up fascinating is the form of each fighter heading into this matchup.

Nina Nunes was on a four-match winning streak, climbing the ranks rapidly in her UFC career. Then, she took time off to start a family with her wife Amanda, and her transition back to the octagon has been anything but smooth. 

Four-Match Winning Streak

Her four-match winning streak abruptly ended in a unanimous decision against wrestler Tatiana Suarez, before going down again to jiu-jitsu maestro Mackenzie Dern in a first-round armbar.

Nunes will be looking to get her career back on track by snapping her two-match losing streak against Calvillo.

On the other hand, Calvillo is also out fighting for her career. The American kicked off her UFC career with a hiss and a roar, winning five of her first six fights.

However, she has now strung together three losses in a row, and four in her last five matches. Her last win came over two years ago against Jessica Eye, and she will be desperate to be back in the winning column again.

Both in their 30s

Given both women are well into their 30s, a loss here could spell the end of either fights’ career—while a win, would propel them to the cusp of the Top Five, and a fight or two away from title contention.

Calvillo vs. Nunes Betting Predictions

With so much on the line in this match up, both fighters will be desperate to bring their best strategy on August 13. Here’s how we think each athlete will approach the contest.

Cynthia Calvillo Analysis

For Cynthia Calvillo, this fight will be all about avoiding unnecessary striking exchanges and pulling Nina Nunes into a grappling match on the floor.

As the 11th ranked flyweight in the world, and doasting a record of 9-4-1, with two KOs and three submissions, Cynthia Calvillo is the type of fighter who can finish a contest early if she executes her game plan correctly.

Three Submissions

In fact, her three submissions have all come early on in fights, something which she will be attempting to re-enact against Nina Nunes on Saturday. However, she’s also susceptible to being knocked out if things don’t go her own way.

In her last match, after three takedown attempts, she gave up on her gameplan of turning the fight into a wrestling contest. This didn’t end well, as she was knocked out attempting to go toe-to-toe with a cleaner striker.

Calvillo’s Best Shot

Calvillo’s best shot at a career-defining victory here is to capitalize on Nunes poor takedown defense, then turn this one into a grapple-fest where she can lean on her superior skill.

Nina Nunes Analysis

While similarly matched to Calvillo in terms of height and reach, Nina Nunes will be wanting to take a polar opposite approach to the American.

For Nunes, this match is all about staying on her feet, utilizing her superior strength, and turning this into a striking game.

Nunes What Should Avoid

She’ll be looking to avoid any takedowns and go the distance to win on points, an approach she has implemented multiple times in the past to great success. Her record of 10-7-0, with 4 KO indicates that this is exactly how she should play this one.

However, of concern has been her poor takedown defense of late. This has been the main reason for her bout of recent losses, and a priority for Nunes will be staying on her feet in order to leverage her advantage in technique and power.

Calvillo vs. Nunes Betting Preview

The bookmakers have Cynthia Calvillo the slight favorite in San Diego. With odds of -190 for Calvillo compared to +155 for Nunes, this one is roughly a 60/40 split in favor of Calvillo.

Chances of a draw are a long shot at +6600, while the most likely result is a Calvillo decision, with a moneyline of +150.

Other results are Calvillo submission or KO at +350 or +1000, and a Nunes decision, submission or KO at +175, +2000 and +800 respectively.

Go to the Distance Odds

This one is most likely to go the distance, with odds of -245 for over 2.5 rounds, and +195 for under 2.5 rounds.

Calvillo vs. Nunes Betting Prediction

The odds say this one will end in a Calvillo decision, and we agree that’s the most likely outcome can these ufc picks come true?

There’s every chance this one could end early to Calvillo as well, if she’s able to play her game plan and get a quick submission.

Who to Bet On?

Look for a Calvillo decision that will get her career back on track, while Saturday’s fight may spell the last time we see Nina Nunes in the octagon, as the 36 year old will make it three losses in a row in her comeback.

UFC Pick: Calvillo (-190)

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