The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 Finale is finally here on the UFC schedule this weekend on the Fight Night main card. Mohammed Usman (8-2) will face off against Zac Pauga (6-0) in the TUF 30 heavyweight title fight.
Both fighters were on Team Pena for this season and now have to compete against each other to be crowned champion of this season.
Fighters’ Previous Fight Record
Usman is coming off a decision win in The Ultimate Fighter and a loss in his last professional MMA bout in PFL last year.
Pauga sealed his trip to the live finale with a second-round finish victory during the filming of The Ultimate Fighter, and he is undefeated in his short MMA career.
Usman vs. Pauga Betting Analysis
Usman Analysis
From watching back this season of TUF, it is easy to see that Usman is the more physically imposing fighter in this matchup.
Usman has a lot of raw power and has the pound-for-pound king as a brother to look up to and learn from.
A quick breakdown of the matchup would be pointing out that Usman is not a very skilled fighter. He strikes like his older brother did five years ago, but without the endless cardio and wrestling ability.
Pauga Analysis
Pauga is newer to the sport but has a similar football background that Usman does. They both will be athletes there on Saturday night for sure.
Pauga has more experience in the light heavyweight division, so this will still be fairly new territory for him in the octagon.
Pauga is much quicker, and his striking is shockingly more fluid than Usman. The training together and having this fight camp leading up to their fight might have some impact on how this goes, though.
UFC Odds for this Fight Night
Usman
According to Usman vs. Pauga odds, Usman is a +205 underdog in this matchup. This means a $100 bet will earn you $205 if it hits.
Pauga
UFC odds show that Pauga is the favorite at -240. This is a pretty big line for a TUF finale fight, but the oddsmakers surely saw how this season played out between the two fighters.
Usman vs. Pauga Betting Pick and Prediction
- Based on MMA odds, my first pick for this bout is the moneyline for Pauga to win at -240. He showed great patience and rhythm in his striking game in his last fight, and I think it will be too much for Usman to handle.
- The only main concern is if he can defend takedowns early in the fight. Usman does not have a great gas tank, so if Pauga shows up in shape, it will be an even bigger advantage for him.
- Pauga wins by TKO at +250. I think he can catch Usman with a lead left hook and hurt him. I really don’t see Usman having an answer for the striking. I
- If Pauga is prepared for takedown defense and wrestling up against the cage, I think he will have superior footwork to keep his range and be landing clean shots on Usman all night. A finish is surely in the cards for this one.
UFC Betting Prediction and Pick
This fight will most likely be finished before the 15 minutes is up. I don’t think Usman has the cardio to go 15 minutes and cause any real damage to Pauga, and Pauga will be the much quicker fighter.
Look for heavy feinting, leg kicks, jabs to the body, and slick combinations coming from Pauga all fight. UFC picks are difficult to make, but just by the eye test watching these two compete in season 30 is enough for me to be confident in Pauga.
Who to Bet On?
I see Usman getting caught and then overwhelmed with strikes and showing defeat in his body language before the fight is even stopped.
This is a lot of pressure for the younger brother of the world champion, and Pauga seems hungry and sharp enough to outclass someone who is mostly just a physically impressive athlete.
UFC Pick: Pagua (-240)
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.
