The main event of this St. Louis event on the UFC fight schedule this weekend is this heavyweight bout with fan-favorite contender Derrick Lewis and prospect Rodrigo Nascimento facing off in the octagon. Will Lewis protect his spot in the rankings? Or will the new blood prove his place amongst the best of the heavyweight division? Read more for the Lewis vs Nascimento betting analysis and prediction before you place any UFC bets this weekend.
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Fight Details and Betting Picks
Lewis vs. Nascimento Information
Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Location of the game: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Date & Time: May 11, 2024. 7 PM ET Main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Lewis vs. Nascimento Picks
- Pick: Lewis by KO.
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Last Fight Record
Lewis looks to bounce back from his unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida last November.
Nascimento is coming off a unanimous decision win over Don’Tale Mayes on the undercard of the Lewis vs. Almeida card.
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Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Analysis
Derrick Lewis
Lewis is an American MMA fighter with a professional record of 27-12, including 22 wins by KO/TKO and 1 submission under his belt at the age of 39. He is the current KO king of the UFC with 14 KOs in his career in the octagon. He has collected 8 post-fight bonuses in the UFC as well.
Lewis is listed as a 6’3” 260lb heavyweight with a 79” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He averages only 2.43 significant strikes landed per minute, but he lands with bad intentions and incredible power. He currently holds a 53% takedown defense that will most likely be tested this weekend.
Rodrigo Nascimento
Nascimento is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with an 11-1 professional record, including 2 TKO/KO wins and 6 submission. He is a rather unknown ranked contender in the UFC, with his only known accomplishment being winning a couple of regional BJJ tournaments and one UFC post-fight bonus so far.
Nascimento is a 6’2” orthodox fighter with an 80” reach at 31 years old. He averages 4.31 significant strikes landed per minute, but he also absorbed 4.76 per minute. Nascimento also lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a solid 77% takedown defense.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.
Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Preview
The Lewis vs. Nascimento betting analysis is tough to follow and use to make this betting pick because this is a matchup between a bonafide UFC legend and a new face with almost zero accomplishments in the sport. We need to look closer at the betting lines and study the tape to determine how the styles of both men will clash in the octagon.
Starting with the available UFC odds, Lewis is going into the weekend as the -155 betting favorite over the +135 Nascimento. With how heavyweight MMA plays out, this fight should be looked at as a coin flip with 50/50 odds. Of course, this bout is heavily favored to end inside the distance at -1000, as most Lewis betting odds suggest in his fights.
Stylistically, Lewis is still one of the most dangerous men on the planet. At heavyweight, these athletes can still be very competitive at 39 years old and Lewis seems to be in better shape than he was at age 35. He always wants to put on a show for the fans and knock whoever is in front of him out cold.
Nascimento doesn’t have even half the power that Lewis has in his hands, but he is quick and crafty. He also has a solid grappling game that he uses well in his game plans. In his most recent performance, he started fast.
The conditioning of both athletes should be in question over 25 minutes, making this an easy fight to predict to end early. It’s tough to imagine either of these guys will last all 5 rounds unless it’s the most boring fight in UFC history with no output.
Lewis vs. Nascimento Betting Prediction
Whenever you see Derrick Lewis in one of the upcoming UFC fights, you have to tune in. He still has plenty left in the tank to put on a great show for fans and that’s exciting. After breaking down the Lewis vs. Nascimento betting analysis and watching their previous performances, the prediction is pretty clear. The grappling of Nascimento is going to be a test for Lewis, but “The Black Beast” is very good at conserving his energy and protecting himself on the ground to set up a big explosive moment to get back to his feet.
We are taking Lewis to get his hand raised after a classic KO win in St. Louis on Saturday night. There’s not enough trust in a Nascimento betting pick yet, and Lewis has only lost to the elite.
The lack of power from Nascimento will let Lewis be confident with letting his hands go and that will be very dangerous for the #15 ranked Brazilian if he wants to stand in front of him.
- Pick: Lewis by KO.
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