The series flips back to Chicago for a decisive Game 5 with the Sky favored by 4.5 points and with an over/under of 161.5. The Sky are -205 on the Moneyline while the Sun are +170.
Early betting data shows Sky odds are favored, with 54% of public bets on the Sky against the spread. The over has 67% of public bets so far. When making a Sky vs Sun Game 5 prediction, here is what you need to know.
Sky vs. Sun Series Previous Scoreboard
For the second time in this series, the Sun blew out the Sky with a 104-80 victory on Tuesday. Chicago looked disinterested at times as they fell behind by eight in the first quarter and trailed by 17 at the half. The Sun had a 39-23 rebounding edge.
Six Sun scorers reached double figures, with DeWanna Bonner and Courtney Williams each scoring 19 points. Alyssa Thomas added 17 points with eight rebounds and four assists.
Sun’s Shooting Percentage
It was a great team effort all around, be it rebounding, sharing the ball, or scoring. The Sun shot 57% from the field and were 6 for 15 on 3-pointers and 16 for 20 at the free throw line.
All things considered, the Sky didn’t play entirely poorly. They converted 48% of shots and were 8 for 21 on 3-pointers and 12 for 16 at the free throw line.
Six scorers reached double figures but that included Dana Evans, who scored 10 points in 10 minutes off the bench.
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Analysis
The Sun have had the rebounding edge in each game this series and only lost it once during the regular season.
But that hasn’t been a difference maker as the Sky swept the regular season series and have taken two games in the playoffs, though no win was larger by eight points. The Sun victories in this series were by five and then Tuesday’s 24-point victory.
The Sun’s rebounding edge holds true for the season. They were the best rebounding team at 37.1 per contest and held teams to 29.0 per game, which was the best mark defensively.
Sun Offense and Defense
The offense finished third at 85.8 points per game and was highly efficient. They converted 46.2% from the field and 35.4% from the 3-point range, ranking second and third, respectively.
Defensively they held teams to 77.8 points per game, ranking second. They were seventh in allowing opponents to 43.9% from the field though they were better on the perimeter, ranking second while holding opponents to 32.8% from 3-point range.
Sky Offense and Defense
The Sky’s offense was second, scoring 86.3 points per game. They were the most efficient unit in the league, converting field goals at a 48.1% rate. They did struggle from the 3-point range, though, converting 34.5%, which ranks seventh.
Defensively they were fourth, allowing 81.3 points per game. However, the efficiencies were league average as opponents converted at a 43.8% clip from the field and 34.0% from the 3-point range.
Sky vs. Sun Odds Breakdown
If you’re looking to make a Sky vs Sun Game 5 prediction, there is some decent betting data. In the series, the Sky are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings in Chicago.
Overall, the Sky are 7-3 against the spread across the last 10 meetings. The over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Chicago.
During the regular season, the Sky (26-10) were 17-18-1 against the spread and 19-16-1 on over/unders. In the playoffs, they are 4-3 against the spread, and their losses have been pretty poor. Additionally, the over has only hit twice in their seven playoff games.
Suns picks have been fairly profitable as they were 25-11 straight up and were 21-15 against the spread this season and 20-15-1 on over/unders.
For the playoffs, they are 4-3 against the spread, and the under is 5-2. The series against the Wings was boom or bust, with each game decided by at least 10 points.
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Pick and Prediction
These two teams are fairly evenly matched. They each have depth and offer a variety of different ways to score, making them difficult to defend. Expect the Sun to again win the rebounding margin.
Jonquel Jones will be the key for the Sun. She must stay out of foul trouble against a tough Sky frontcourt of Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman.
The wings and backcourts are fairly even, and the Sun probably have the edge there. Still, when the Sky are locked in they are incredibly tough to beat.
Even winning the rebounding and turnover margins (because it’s such a slight edge) makes it difficult, so a masterclass defensive performance needs to be in order for the Sun.
WNBA Pick: Sky -4 (-110)
WNBA Pick: Over 159.5 8-110)