Commissioner’s Cup: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Analysis and Prediction

The WNBA adding the Commissioner’s Cup is a welcome addition that adds a little more interest to the regular season. Not only do the games count toward the season standings, but the players can earn an additional $500,000 and $165,000 toward a charitable organization. Check the Liberty vs. Sun Betting Analysis below.

Wednesday’s game between the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun at 7 p.m. ET is one of the 61 games counting toward those standings. In Cup games alone they are tied for second in the Eastern Conference at 4-3, both behind the Chicago Sky (8-1 in Cup games).

The Sun (12-5) are second overall in the regular season, sitting 1.5 games behind the Las Vegas Aces. The Liberty (6-10) are ninth and sit seven games behind the Aces.

Last game records

New York lost on national television to Sue Bird and the Seattle Storm 81-72. Marine Johannes scored a season high 23 points for the Liberty and Sabrina Ionescu fell two rebounds shy of a triple-double with 12 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds. Ionescu was a star at Oregon and is one of the reason’s women’s basketball and the WNBA is on the rise.

The Sun lost 71-63 to the Washington Mystics in their last game. Elena Delle Donne had 15 points and was one of four Mystics in double figures. Center Jonquel Jones matched Delle Donne’s 15 points to lead the Sun.

Liberty vs. Sun Betting Analysis

New York Liberty

While the Liberty have had their struggles this season, they are 8-8 against the spread, so oddsmakers have done a good job. Since the calendar turned to June, New York is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. The over is 3-5 in games throughout June and 7-9 for the season.

One of the biggest issues for the Liberty has been their offense. They average a league worst 76.3 points per game and convert 31.7% of 3-pointers, the worst rate in the WNBA. They hit 42.4% of shots overall, which ranks eighth, and are 80.5% free throw shooters, ranking third. So if they can draw fouls, they will increase their odds of an upset.

Defensively they’ve been much better, ranking fifth while allowing 81.0 points per game and forcing opponents into 41.3% shooting from the field, the second best rate in the league. But opponents convert 34.8% of 3-pointers, which is the fifth worst rate in the league.

The aforementioned Ionescu is averaging 20.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game since June. New York started 1-7 and Ionescu has lifted the team out of that stretch. Natasha Howard, a 6-foot-2 forward, is averaging 15.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.

Connecticut Sun

Connecticut was 6-1 in its previous seven games before the loss to the Mystics. They are 5-3 against the spread in the month of June and the over/under is 4-4. For the season the Sun are 9-8 against the spread and 9-7-1 on over/unders.

The Sun are among the best offensive teams in the league, and arguably the best. They average 86.4 points per game, second behind Las Vegas, and are converting 46.6% of shots, which ranks third. Their 36.8% conversion rate from 3-point range is the league’s best mark. They also are the top rebounding team at 36.6 per contest.

Connecticut is the total package, ranking third in defense. They allow 77.9 points per game but are sixth as opponents convert 43.4% of shot attempts and 33.3% of 3-point attempts.

Jones is a force on the interior and perimeter, averaging 15.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while shooting .526/.377/.806. DeWanna Bonner averages 14.6 points per game. Brionna Jones adds 14.3 per contest. Alyssa Thomas (12.9 ppg) and Courtney Williams (10.0) are also scoring in double figures.


The newest injury updates show the Liberty will be without four players and the Sun two. Though Tuesday’s news was that Jocelyn Willoughby will be out until early July with a quadricep injury and Rebecca Allen will miss Wednesday’s game with a concussion, the Liberty announced.

Liberty vs. Sun Betting Preview

WNBA odds show the Sun open as 9.5 point favorites against the Liberty, which is on par given the Liberty won the first game by two and Connecticut got revenge by 27. The over/under opens at 157.5, which is the middle ground between the last two games.

The moneyline is a pretty wide gap, giving the Liberty an enticing +340 as underdogs to the Sun as favorites at -450.

Connecticut has dominated the series over the past few years, winning nine of the last 10 games. New York is 1-4 against the spread over the last five. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 11-4-1 over the last 16 in Connecticut.

Liberty vs. Sun Betting Prediction

It’s crazy to think the Liberty won the season opener before going on a seven game losing streak, including the blowout by the Sun. But the Liberty are trending in the right direction and are worth WNBA picks considerations. But Connecticut has blown out New York with seven of the last nine Sun victories by 10 points or more.

While the Liberty are playing a lot better, the pick is Sun -9.5.

How to bet on Liberty vs. Sun

Before choosing a side to bet on, figuring out a unit to bet is the first step. Only wager what you’re comfortable losing and can live without. Once that is decided, do your own research to find the details that best suit how you want to bet. Then you’re ready.

For explanation and quick math purposes, we’ll use $100. A $100 bet on the Liberty moneyline would net a $340 profit, or total of $440. It would take a $450 wager on the Sun to win $100 for a total payout of $550.

With large moneyline odds, against the spread is most lucrative to bet on the favorites. But the Sun must win by 10 or more to pay out. Conversely a bet on the Liberty +9.5 means they must lose by nine or less, or win outright. Betting on the over means the team totals must be 158 or more. The under must be 157 or less.

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