WNBA

Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun Betting Analysis and Prediction

The second set of series in the WNBA 2022 Playoffs tips off between the Dallas Wings and Connecticut Sun at 8 p.m. ET from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.

The Sun (25-11) made a late charge but finished one game back of the best record in the league.

The Wings (18-18) are making consecutive playoff appearances for the second time since the franchise moved to Dallas but haven’t won a playoff series since the organization was the Detroit Shock.

WNBA Previous Scoreboards

Wings Performance Recap

Dallas closed the regular season with a 116-88 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks. The Wings secured the victory with a dominating 41-9 second quarter.

Five players scored in double figures, led by Marina Mabrey’s 27 points and Teaira McCowan’s 24. They shot 65.6% from the field.

Sun Performance Recap

The Sun were 90-83 winners over the Minnesota Lynx in their season finale, and it wasn’t really that close. They held a 17-point lead entering the final quarter.

The best moment was Sylvia Fowles checking out for the final time in her career for the Lynx. But that was as the game was in hand.

Five Sun scored in double figures with great balance as Alyssa Thomas led the way with 16 points.

Wings vs. Sun Betting Analysis

WNBA odds today show the Sun are 9.5-point favorites with an over/under of 163.5. That’s a half-point movement from its opening at Sun -10.

The moneyline shows Connecticut is a heavy favorite at -585, while there is money to be made should the Wings win at +420.

The head-to-head series shows the Wings actually won the season series. The results were: an 85-77 Wings win on May 24 in Connecticut; a 99-68 Sun win at home on May 26; and an 82-71 Wings win on July 5 in Dallas. The Wings were 2-1 against the spread, as was the over in this year’s series.

Wings Analysis

The Wings have been great offensively all season. They finished fourth in scoring at 82.9 points per game but weren’t the most efficient team.

They were eighth in both field goal percentage (43.5%) and 3-point percentage (34.3%). They also had the second worst free throw percentage at 76.4%.

Wings Defense

Dallas was not great defensively, finishing seventh while holding teams to 82.8 points per game. Opponents converted 45.9% of shots, the third worst rate defensively, and 34.3% of 3-pointers, ranking seventh defensively.

The Wings are likely without Arike Ogunbowale, one of the league’s best scorers. She has been out with a hip injury for several weeks with a timeline of “late August.” She finished tied for third in scoring at 19.7 points per game.

Sun Analysis

The Sun were one of the top teams in the league for a good reason. They were third offensively, scoring 85.8 points per game, second in field goal percentage (46.2%), and third in 3-point percentage (35.4%).

Their 37.1 rebounds per game and 29 rebounds allowed per game were the best marks in the league. Defensively, they were second at holding teams to 77.8 points per contest.

Sun Defense

The Sun were seventh, allowing teams to convert 43.9% from the field, but were second on the perimeter, holding teams to 32.8% from 3-point range.

Former MVP Jonquel Jones led the team with 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, but a balanced scoring approach had six players averaging 9.1 points per contest or better.

WNBA Injury Report

Aside from Ogunbowale, the Wings are expected to have Satou Sabally (probable, ankle) return to the lineup.

Forward Isabelle Harrison is questionable with a shoulder injury. The Sun have been without Bria Hartley (knee) since late July and Jasmine Thomas (knee) since late May.

Wings vs. Sun Betting Preview

The Wings made basketball betting profitable for some, punching above their weight against the spread with a 21-14-1 record.

Dallas is 21-15 on over/unders this season. The Sun were 21-15 against the spread and 20-15-1 on over/unders.

Public Betting Criteria

WNBA picks data show 62% of public bets are on the Wings against the spread, and 69% of bets are on the over.

But the under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. The Wings are 2-5 against the spread in the last seven meetings in Connecticut (1-1 this season) and 4-10 against the spread in the last 14 meetings, regardless of location.

Wings vs. Sun Betting Prediction

The WNBA 2022 Playoffs Round 1 Game 1 Betting Prediction is Wings +9.5. That’s a large number, even for the Sun to overcome.

It should be a good battle of pace as the Wings’ inefficient offense has to find ways to secure extra possessions, especially if Ogunbowale can’t play.

WNBA Pick: Wings +9.5 (-110)

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