New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings Betting Analysis and Predictions

The New York Liberty are a half game out of the final playoff spot while the Dallas Wings have essentially secured one of the eight playoff spots. The two teams meet at 8 p.m. ET on Monday at the College Park Center.

The Liberty (13-19) are a game back in the win column from the Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream, who are each 14-19 and tied for the eighth spot in the WNBA playoffs race.

WNBA Playoffs Race

This year a new format takes the top eight teams regardless of the conference and then seeds them one through eight.

The Liberty will have a golden opportunity with a rematch against the Wings on Wednesday and closing the regular season with two games against the Dream.

The Wings (16-16) finish with the Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks (13-20), so all-important games in the playoff hunt, though one win should secure Dallas’ spot.

WNBA odds show the Wings as favorites at -4 and the over/under is 160.5. The moneyline has the Wings at -170 and the Liberty at +140, so by WNBA standards very close.

Teams’ Previous Matchups Scoreboards

The Liberty lost a critical game to the Mercury on Saturday, 76-62, in Phoenix. Sabrina Ionescu had 20 points, five rebounds and five assists to become the first player in WNBA history to reach 200 assists and 200 rebounds in a single season.

However she was the only scorer to reach double figures as the team had shooting splits of .31/.22/.81. The Wings needed overtime to fend off the Indiana Fever (5-29), 95-91 at home.

Kayla Thornton had 21 points, Marina Mabrey added 18 and Teaira McCowan had 17. Arike Ogunbowale had 12 points but was 3 for 11 from the field. 

Liberty vs. Wings Betting Analysis

Liberty Stats

The Liberty are 16-15-1 against the spread and 15-17 on over/under this season they’ve actually ranked as a subpar team on both ends of the floor.

New York is 10th offensively, scoring 79.1 points per game, 10th in field goal percentage (42.6%) and seventh in 3-point field goals (34.4%).

Frankly, Ionescu is the leader averaging 17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game. She’s played in all 32 games along with Natasha Howard, who is averaging 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Brittney Laney has only played in five games and is the other player averaging double figures.

Liberty Defense

Defensively, the Liberty hold teams to the best field goal percentage, forcing teams to convert 42.1% of field goals.

They are seventh, however, allowing 82.5 points per game and sixth in allowing teams to convert 33.7% of 3-pointers/

Wings Stats

The Wings are 19-12-1 against the spread and 18-14 on over/unders this season. They’ve had an average season and the correlation among their season averages is there.

Dallas is fifth offensively, scoring 82.4 points per game, but are one of the worst shooting teams in the league.

The Wings are eighth at converting 42.9% from the field, ninth at making 33.5% of 3-pointers and second worst in free throw percentage at 76.7%.

Once the league scoring leader, Ogunbowale is tied for third and has a team high of 19.7 points per game. Behind her is:

  • Allisha Gray at 13.2
  • Mabrey at 12.6
  • Satou Sabally at 11.3
  • McCowan at 10.3

Wings Defense

Defensively, though, the Wings are sixth at holding teams to 82.4 points per game. However, they are the third worst team at allowing opponents to convert 45.6% from the field. They tighten up on the perimeter holding teams to 33.1% on 3-pointers.

WNBA Injury Report

The Liberty have listed Howard as doubtful with an ankle injury, which would be a huge loss while looking at securing a playoff spot. Laney is still out till mid-August with a knee injury, with no further intel available.

The Wings list Ogunbowale out with a hip injury for Monday’s game. Sabally is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and no further updates are available.

Liberty vs. Wings Betting Preview

Basketball betting can be tricky because the rosters change so much with only 12 roster spots per team, so the history against one another isn’t as great. If coaches are there for awhile, it can certainly mean more, but that isn’t a given.

Still, the Wings are 10-2 against the spread in the last 12 meetings in Dallas. Though, the Liberty are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings regardless of location.

The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas. Meanwhile the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings regardless of location.

Liberty vs. Wings Betting Prediction

WNBA picks show 70% of the public is on the Wings to cover the four-point spread. Then 68% of the public is on the over.

However, the under is a spicy play given that Ogunbowale and Howard will be out. It does feel like there will be blowout potential, though with Ionescu the lone double-figure scorer available for the Liberty, unless Howard is surprisingly available.

Who to Bet On?

The Wings can afford to rest Ogunbowale, but Howard sitting may be so she’s fully healthy heading into the last three games: Wednesday’s rematch and two games against the Dream, which could decide who makes the playoffs.

For Monday, though, the pick is Wings -4 and under 160.5. Conversely, a bet on the Liberty against the spread cashes if they lose by three or less or win outright.

The over needs both teams to combine for 161 points or more, and the under needs them to combine for 160 points or less.

WNBA Pick: Wings -4 (-110)

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