Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks Betting Analysis and Predictions
Last Game Records
The Sparks have won consecutive games, including an 84-74 victory over the New York Liberty on Sunday. Nneka Ogwumike scored 22 points as one of five Sparks in double figures. Liz Cambage had 16 points and eight rebounds, while Chiney Ogwumike had a double-double with 12 points and ten rebounds in 17 minutes off the bench.
Mercury at Sparks Betting Analysis
Phoenix Mercury Betting Analysis
The Mercury have been one of the stronger teams offensively, scoring 82.4 points per game. That ranks fourth in the WNBA. They shoot 80.2% from the free-throw line (fourth), which is critical should they have a lead late in the game.
The guard play has been great this season. Diggins-Smith is averaging 19.0 points and 5.1 assists per game while playing alongside Diana Taurasi, one of the best to ever play in the league.
Taurasi is averaging 15.6 points and 4.0 assists per game. DeShields, who came over from Chicago, is scoring 14.1 points and grabbing 4.0 rebounds per game. Sophie Cunningham is shooting 40.3% on 3-pointers for 9.1 points per game.
The issue for Phoenix has been the defensive end. They allow 85.3 points per game, the 10th most in the league. Opponents shoot 45.2% from the field, ranking 10th, and 38.4% from 3-point range, ranking 12th.
A significant part of that is not having Brittney Griner, who is on trial in Russia, where she was detained in February trying to leave before the start of the Russia/Ukraine war. Not having her presence in the paint has allowed opportunities for opponents to drive and create in the paint.
Los Angeles Sparks Betting Analysis
That is good news for the Sparks, who have a strong frontcourt with Ogwumike and Cambage. Though Los Angeles is much like Phoenix this season in that, they have been strong offensively but struggled defensively.
The Sparks score 82.2 points per game, ranking fifth, and have the second-best field goal percentage at 45.7%. Their perimeter presence, however, is awful. They have the second-worst 3-point percentage at 33.1% and a free throw conversion rate of 77.2%, ranking ninth.
Nneka Ogwumike paces the team at 18.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Cambage is behind her at 13.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Then comes wing Katie Lou Samuelson, who is averaging 10.5 points per game and converting 41.3% of 3-point shots on 75 attempts.
Defensively, though, they allow 85.5 points per game, ranking 11th. Opponents convert 44.6% of shots from the field (ninth) and 37.2% of 3-point attempts, the second-worst rate defensively.
Updates
The aforementioned Griner had her trial begin prior to the weekend, but there is no sense of when she may be freed. Kia Nurse is out indefinitely with a knee injury for Phoenix.
The Sparks’ fourth-leading scorer, Brittney Sykes, is questionable with an illness. Fellow guards Kristi Toliver (calf) and Chennedy Carter (knee) are also questionable. Rae Burrell is out until late July with a knee injury.
Mercury at Sparks Betting Preview
A point favors the Mercury with an over/under of 165.5. WNBA odds have Phoenix’s moneyline is -120, with the Sparks at +100. Betting trends show 55% of bettors are on the Mercury and 62% are on the over.
Los Angeles is 11-9 against the spread and 12-8 on over/under this season. The Mercury are 10-11-1 against the spread this season and 12-10 on over/under.
The Sparks won 99-94 at home in the two prior matchups, covering a 2.5-point spread on May 25. The total was over 164.5. Ten days later, the Mercury returned the favor, winning 81-74 on their home court and covering a nine-point margin as underdogs. The total went under 171.
Phoenix has covered three of the last four meetings, though the Mercury are 2-9 against the spread in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
Mercury at Sparks Betting Prediction
Unlike betting on baseball, the strength on strength battles are always difficult to predict. Generally, great guard play trumps a strong frontcourt on the offensive end, but the Mercury being the worst 3-point shooting team in the league makes it difficult to see them taking advantage of their perimeter matchup unless Cunningham has a great game.
Our WNBA picks will take the Sparks +1. They’ve played better competition of late and have won three of their last four, including an eight-point win over Seattle and a six-point loss to Las Vegas in that stretch.
Both have been beaten handily by Chicago recently, so there’s nothing to glean from that. However, the key will be to see who is available in the Los Angeles backcourt.
How to Bet on Phoenix Mercury at Los Angeles Sparks
We’ll use $100 for some easy math but only bet what you are comfortable losing and can still have enough to live off of. If the Sparks win at +100 on the moneyline, a $100 profit will pay out a total of $200. It would take a $120 bet on the Mercury and a win to pay out a $100 profit, or $220 in total.
Betting on the spread means the Mercury have to win by two points or more to cover -1. Conversely, the Sparks must win outright to cover +1. Betting on the over means the teams will combine for 166 points or more. Taking the under means they’ll combine for 165 points or less.
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