The road team has won each of the Game 1s in the WNBA Playoffs semifinals so far. The Seattle Storm will look to take a 2-0 series lead when they visit the Las Vegas Aces at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Michelob Ultra Arena.
The Aces (26-10) secured the league’s best record with a 109-100 victory over the Storm in the regular season finale on Aug. 14.
WNBA Previous Records
But the script was flipped as the Storm took Game 1, 76-73, on Sunday. Jewell Loyd poured in 26 points on 10 for 19 shooting, while Breanna Stewart added 24 points, six rebounds, and three blocks.
The Storm (22-14) shot 41% from the field and 23% from the 3-point line. They had a slight rebounding edge, 37-34, and a turnover margin of +4.
Tina Charles was the X-factor with 13 points and 18 rebounds. Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Betting Prediction could be a battle as the last game was so close.
The Aces were the highest-scoring team in the regular season. However, they shot 41% from the field and 26% on 3-pointers while losing two key margins.
Chelsea Gray scored 21 points, and Kelsey Plum added 20. But Plum was 2 for 10 on 3-point attempts and 8 for 23 for the game. She missed the game-tying 3-pointer with 4 seconds left.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Betting Analysis
While the Aces won the season series 3-1, the Storm has kept it within single digits in all but one game. Las Vegas won by 11, nine, and eight the third time, while the Storm’s June 29 win was by 10.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces betting prediction shows the Aces are favored by 66% of public bets against the spread while a 55% majority of bets are also on the over.
Seattle Storm Analysis
The Storm has had the third-best defensive unit in the league. They are third at allowing 78.4 points per game, fourth at forcing a 43.4% field goal percentage, and are best on the perimeter as they limit teams to 32.0% from 3-point range.
The challenge comes with going against the best offensive team in the league with a middle-of-the-road unit.
Seattle was fifth in scoring at 82.5 points per game and sixth in overall field goal percentage at 44.2%. However, the Storm has the best 3-point percentage at 36.1% and free throw percentage at 82.5%.
Charles was massive on the glass in Game 1, but the Storm was ninth for the season at 33.6 rebounds per game and second worst defensively, allowing 36.5 per contest.
Las Vegas Aces Analysis
The aforementioned Aces offense scored 90.4 points per game while boasting a 46.0% field goal percentage, which ranked third and was second in both 3-point percentages at 36.1% and free throw percentage at 82.3%.
Defensively their numbers suffered naturally because of the high pace they play with. The Aces allowed 84.1 points per game, which ranked ninth (of 12) while forcing teams to convert 43.7% from field goal range (fifth) and 35.6% from 3-point range, the third worst mark in the league.
While the Aces are fourth in rebounding at 35.4 per game, they were third worst in allowing 36.5 per contest.
WNBA Injury Report
Seattle’s Gabby Williams is questionable on Wednesday with a concussion. Mercedes Russell was ruled out for the season with a head injury in late July, which is in part why they brought on Charles late in the year.
Dearica Hamby is listed as out till mid-September with a knee injury. She potentially could be ready by the WNBA Finals, should the Aces get that far.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
More betting data shows the Aces are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Las Vegas and have that same record in the last seven meetings regardless of location (obviously, not all have occurred in Las Vegas).
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Las Vegas and is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, regardless of location.
Of course, that data does not account for Becky Hammon’s system in her first year as coach. The Aces are 3-2 against the spread, covering as high as 6.5, while the over is 2-3.
The over hit at 168.5 and 166.5 while the under hit at 172.5 (in the playoff game), 16.5, and 176. That data shows why basketball betting can be both frustrating and difficult.
The Aces may as well be crowned champions since they are the betting favorites at +200. WNBA picks, however, believe it is close with the Storm at +225 and then the defending champion Chicago Sky at +700.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Betting Pick and Prediction
There are two key areas to determine who will win if all other factors are equal or close: whoever wins the rebounding margin and whoever shoots better from 3-point range.
WNBA Most Profitable Team to Bet On
The Aces may have won Game 1 if Plum shoots her 3-point average. They also likely win if they secure a few extra rebounds – especially if that means the storm missed more shots in a one-possession game.
The Aces are sure to rebound (ha, get it?) with a victory, so -250 is a decent margin. Will they cover the six-point spread? We’ll take that gamble.
WNBA Pick: Aces -6 (10/11)