The Washington Mystics are thriving with a healthy Elena Delle Donne and look to win a second west coast game when they visit the Phoenix Mercury at 10:00 PM EDT on Thursday. Check the Mystics vs Mercury Betting Analyisis below.
The Mystics (15-10) have the league’s fifth-best record and are two back in the win column from the East-leading and defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky.
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury (10-15) was one of the top women’s basketball teams last year, meeting the Sky in the WNBA Finals.
This year though, they’re lacking in a big way, with star center Brittney Griner detained in Russia since February. Here’s a deeper look into our mystics vs. Mercury Betting Analysis WNBA preview.
WNBA Score Records
On Tuesday, the Mystics started their second half with a wire-to-wire, 94-81 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks.
Elena Delle Donne scored 26 points, and Natasha Cloud added 21 of her own points as the team converted 51% of field goal attempts, 45% of 3-pointers, and was 18-for-21 from the free throw line.
A 15-4 overtime push by the Minnesota Lynx was enough to beat the Mercury, 118-107 on Tuesday. That’s despite Sophie Cunningham’s career performance scoring 36 points on 13-for-20 shooting.
Skylar Diggins-Smith had a double-double with 32 points and 10 assists. But it wasn’t enough to overcome Aerial Powers’ 35 points and 13 rebounds to pace the Lynx.
Mystics vs. Mercury Betting Analysis
The Mercury are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten meetings with Washington. The over is 5-2 in the last seven between the two teams in Phoenix. In the last 16 meetings, it’s 11-5, regardless of location.
For the season, the Mystics are 16-9 against the spread and 9-16 on over/under. The Mercury are 10-14-1 against the spread and 14-11 on over/under.
Washington Mystics Analysis
Washington has been the best defensive team in the league, holding teams to 75.7 points per game. Though they are fifth, allowing opponents to convert 43.3% of field goals and 33.7% of 3-pointers.
But the Mystics excel at limiting rebounds, holding opponents to 33.6 per game, ranking third. Conversely, the offense is third worst, scoring 80.2 points per game.
Part of that is by design, playing at a slower pace as indicated by their field goal percentage of 44.0%, which ranks sixth, and a 34.6% 3-point percentage, which ranks eighth.
Delle Donne Beating the WNBA Records
Delle Donne, a 6-foot-5 forward, is averaging 16.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game while converting 41.9% of 3-pointers. A sense of a unicorn by WNBA standards.
Ariel Atkins averages 14.8 points per game, and Natasha Cloud adds 11.3 points and 7.2 assists per game.
Phoenix Mercury Analysis
The Mercury score 83.2 points per game, ranking fifth, and have great guard play. Yet they shoot 32.3% from 3-point range, the worst rate in the league.
They do convert 43.5% of overall field goal attempts, faring better driving. Part of that is not having Griner, both as a rim protector, a pick and roll threat, and post-up opportunities.
Mercury Lineup Breakdown
Diggins-Smith is averaging 19.4 points, 5.4 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game. One of the greatest players of all time, Diana Taurasi, is still going strong and averaging 15.9 points, 4.1 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game.
Newcomer from Chicago Diamond DeShields is adding 13.0 points per game. Defensively, it’s a struggle, though.
They allow teams to score 86.1 points per game, the third worst rate, with a 45.2% field goal percentage (ninth) and 38.1% 3-point percentage, the worst in the league. Phoenix is also the worst rebounding team in the league.
WNBA Injury Report
There aren’t any injury updates. For Phoenix, Griner remains out indefinitely, as does Kia Nurse, who has a knee injury. No Mystics are listed on the injury report.
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
WNBA odds show the Mystics are favored by three points and have a -150 moneyline offering. The Mercury are +130 on the moneyline at decent odds at home.
The over/under is set at 160, which went over when the two matched up on June 12, a 99-90 Mercury win in overtime. The regulation matchup on June 14 was well under 161 as the Mystics won 83-65.
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Prediction
WNBA picks are sometimes tough, but this one seems cut and dry. The Mystics have won four of their last five games and covered the spread in each of those. We like them to do it again on Thursday night in Phoenix.
WNBA Pick
Basketball betting can sometimes be difficult, but the WNBA particularly doesn’t have a lot of variances. The best teams tend to win the matchups they should, though that’s not always the case. Betting on the moneyline simply means you pick that team to win.
For the odds, we’ll use $100 for quick math purposes but only bet what you can afford to lose and still live off of.
It would take a $150 bet on the Mystics to profit $100 for a total payout of $250. Betting $100 on the Mercury at +130, which reads the profit, would pay out $230.
Who to Bet On?
The point spread of three means you’re betting the Mystics to win by four or more points or for the Mercury to win outright or lose by two or fewer. If the Mystics win by three, your bet will be refunded.
Betting the over/under is simply whether the teams combine to score more than 160 points (over) or less than 160 points (under).
WNBA Pick: Mystics -3 (-110)
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