NFL Teams Stats

As any good high school statistics teacher will tell you, “Data DOES NOT equal information. Numbers NEED context.” If there’s one thing you take away from this content piece, it’s that context is power, and the more of it you have, the more likely you are to be successful in betting.

Let’s use this as an example: If a website says this data point: “The Dallas Cowboys passed for 200 yards,”

That number means nothing until knowing the circumstances around that stat line.

• Was this game in the 1950s when the forward pass was nowhere near as prominent as today?
• Did those yards all come in the first half of a game, or was that the full game total?
• What was their rushing total for the game?
• How many touchdowns?
• Interceptions?
• What was the final score?
• How many other teams passed for more than 200 yards?

There are websites that are useful in helping clarify league-wide, conference-specific, and player-specific information. For example, let’s take a look at ESNP’s  team yardage page. In that section of the website, you can sort the NFC, AFC, or league-wide statistics to see how teams stack up.

Team-Focused Stats

One of the best indicators to use for picking a winner, either straight up or against the spread, is yardage; more specifically, how many yards a team gains and how many it allows. While previous points are a good reference point, yardage is a much better indicator of future success. If a team can move the ball effectively, they are more likely to score. Relying on yardage, not points, takes some of the randomness out of the betting equation.

Let’s do a small case study here. Entering Week Six of the 2021-22 season, the Baltimore Ravens led the league in yards per game at 440.6. The closest team was the Dallas Cowboys at 439.6, but the closest AFC team was the Kansas City Chiefs at 420.4. Baltimore was tied for second in league with a 4-1 record, but they were tied for first in the AFC. Dallas was tied for second in the NFC, while the Chiefs were tied for ninth in the league at 2-3.

The Ravens had put up the ninth-most points in the league, while Kansas City was fifth and the Cowboys, second.

So, What Do Those Numbers Tell Us?

They back up the trend that says teams with higher yardage totals tend to score more points, but that also doesn’t necessarily translate to wins. Digging deeper, we can find out that Kansas City has allowed the second-most yards in the league. Dallas has allowed the eighth-most and Baltimore the ninth-most. The Chiefs allow the most points per game in the league (32.6 per game), but the Ravens and Cowboys (tied for 14th-fewest at 23.4) are in a much better position. All of the stats we’ve listed here work together to paint a clearer picture of teams’ successes and shortcomings.

Another point to consider is the turnover margin. Turnover margin is calculated by subtracting giveaways from takeaways. The more positive the number, the more likely a team is to retain possession of the pigskin.

Let’s use the Ravens, Cowboys, and Chiefs again in this example.

• Dallas has a +7 turnover differential, which is second-best in the NFL. They lead the league with ten interceptions and have recovered two fumbles (12 total takeaways) while they’ve thrown three interceptions and lost two fumbles (five giveaways).
• Baltimore has a -1 turnover differential, while Kansas City is at -7. The Chiefs’ turnover margin is the second-worst in the NFL, behind only the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.

Using turnover differential with the yardage outputs, we can see that Kansas City’s offense has been relatively productive despite some turnovers. Still, the defense has a greater share of the blame for the losing record through the first five weeks. It’s important to know that no stat shifts betting lines quite like a good or bad turnover week. If a defense forces two fumbles and two interceptions in one week, the public may “overcorrect” on the betting lines for that team the following week. Similarly, a bad game with three picks from a good quarterback in one week can swing bettors to their opponent for the next game. As always, remember the context and what happened that led to the turnovers. There’s an opportunity to turn a profit on your bets by paying attention to the trends and not overreacting to one bad week.

Time of Possession and Its Correlation with Win Percentage in Football

Hand in hand with turnover margin is the time of possession. In general, there’s a strong correlation between win percentage and time of possession, although it’s best to keep in mind that correlation does not equal causation. Teams could dominate the time of possession and lose or have the ball for 20:00 minutes and win because of a quick-strike offense. It’s a good rule of thumb, but it shouldn’t be your only unit of measure.

The Cowboys and Ravens ranked ninth and 10th in a time of possession through the first five weeks of the 2021 season, while the Chiefs ranked 16th. As Top 10 teams in yards, points per game, and time of possession, Baltimore and Dallas were higher in the standings than Kansas City despite the generally-held perception that the Chiefs have the best offense of the three.

Offensively, looking at a team’s success rates on first and second downs is important to analyze how efficiently the team moves the ball down the field. Most stats sites consider a “successful” play to be a play on first or second down that gains at least 40% of the yards remaining to get the first down.

Similarly, a team’s third and fourth down conversion rates are important to look at. However, if you’re trying to gauge a team’s true offensive capabilities, look at how many times they can pick up first down yardage on either first or second down.

We also can’t go much further without talking about the Achilles heel of any team: penalties. Coaches at all levels preach discipline and make it a point to avoid taking penalties. There’s no worse feeling for any player than having a big play wiped out by a penalty, and good teams generally keep their penalties to a minimum.

Analyzing the Type of Penalties Teams Take in Football

Beyond breaking down just how many penalties teams take and how much yardage those penalties account for, pay attention to the type of penalties those teams are frequently taking. Does the team take a ton of offensive holding penalties? They’ll be in trouble against a team with a solid pass rush. Too many defensive pass interference penalties? Look out against teams with a quality aerial attack.

Penalties are hard to predict consistently in terms of timing. Still, they can be expected to happen throughout the game, and penalties are a critical component to account for when determining your betting strategy.

One of the more recent stats that has taken off in popularity is the “big play rate.” A big play is defined as a passing play that goes for 20+ yards or a rushing play for 10+ yards. The frequency with which teams can generate big plays has a strong positive correlation with their point totals. Conversely, teams who struggle to generate big plays likely have lower point totals (and, in turn, lower win totals).

Team stats are also helpful because they detail what teams do and do not struggle with, which makes examining the matchup and predicting the future much easier.

Advantages of Betting on the NFL With Stats

Betting based on team and NFL players’ stats can give gamblers a leg up over oddsmakers. For example, say Team A is only 2-13 this season, but they strangely have the fourth-best run defense in the league— also assume that Team is playing 10-5 Team B, which is a team that is first in rushing offense but last in pass defense and third-down conversions.

In this scenario, if Team A’s rush defense can hold up as it has for most of the season, it will put Team B in a position of needing to pass, which it has struggled with. The NFL odds would almost certainly favor Team B, but Team A would be in a strong position to cause them a problem, which would lead bettors to consider going for their spread, or, potentially, a team prop on total rushing yards.

Taking it one level further, assuming this scenario is correct and Team A would force Team B into passing the ball, it would also be smart to check out Team B’s total passing yards total and risk the over.

Get the latest NFL Expert Picks