The lull between the NFL Super Bowl and the revealing of the March Madness bracket on Selection Sunday seems to be neverending. Don’t look now, but February is quickly wrapping up. Conference tournaments will be here in no time, and inevitably, that means it is almost time to make your March Madness bracket predictions.
It is not necessarily about getting the perfect bracket as much as it is having the best bracket in your group. You can still earn a lot of money by having a great bracket that is not perfect. As the March Madness schedule will be here sooner than you know it, let’s take a look at some of the key trends and common mistakes to avoid. Follow along for our March Madness brackets tips.
Perfection Is Not Easy
If you are a gambler, you have to be somewhat good with numbers. There is a 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. A newborn child has just as good of odds as a college basketball expert of getting the first perfect bracket ever.
Let’s beat the odds, fellas; it is time to make history. Pay close attention to the best March Madness brackets tips to be at the top of your group.
Record Means A Lot
History may not be your favorite subject, but you need to look at the past when making your bracket. It is fun picking the underdog to go all the way; however, that is just not realistic. The Cinderella stories are fun, but they have to end at some point, even if we all wanted Saint. Peter’s to win it all last year.
Throughout the last 34 years, only one team has won the NCAA Tournament with double-digit losses. That was the 1988 Kansas Jayhawks coached by Larry Brown, who went 27-11 that season.
If your team has more than nine losses heading into the tournament, you may go far, but this is not your year. A team’s record truly means a lot when it comes to the best chance to win March Madness.
Ignore the AP Poll
Many of those chasing a perfect bracket put too much faith in the AP Poll. The AP Poll is a good place to start, but it is certainly not the end-all-be-all. Do you think the NCAA Selection Committee focuses on the AP Poll when making the rankings? No, they do not even look at it.
A great place to start is the NCAA NET Rankings. For example, the Saint Mary’s Gaels and UConn Huskies are ranked No. 15 and 18 in the AP Poll but are both top eight teams in the NET Rankings. The AP Poll does not factor in important statistics like Quad 1 wins or records on the road. Feel free to start with the AP Poll, but be wary and do more research when making your March Madness prop bets.
No Homes Game
Every single March Madness game in the Round of 64 is played on a neutral floor. There are no home games, and that will very much hinder the March Madness betting odds. Pay very close attention to the road records of the team that you think might be your favorite to win March Madness.
Let’s take a look at the Iowa State Cyclones. They are having a phenomenal season and are ranked respectably in both the AP Poll and the NET Rankings. The Cyclones are a very impressive 13-1 at home in a very tough conference, yet they are 2-7 on the road.
When teams are not playing where they are comfortable, their performance on the floor will be noticeable. There are many teams that are very good but struggle on the road. Yes, I am looking at you, Purdue. They have lost their last three games away from Mackey Arena.
Look Out, Blue Bloods
Respect the Mid-Majors
Each and every year, the mid-majors of college basketball get overlooked, and each and every year, they prove us wrong. It is time we finally start respecting the Oral Roberts and the Murray States of the world.
How are you even supposed to prepare to play against a team from, say, the Missouri Valley Conference? They are always outsized and out-skilled, but they have nothing to lose. A hungry mid-major is one of the scariest sights for opponents in the NCAA Tournament. They will not have the best odds to win March Madness, but they can upset a team or two.
No Need to be Upset
We talked about history earlier, and now, it is time to do some math. On average, throughout the NCAA Tournament, there is an average of 12.4 upsets per year. There are always outliers, like in 2007 when there were only 4, and in 2014 when there were an astounding 19, but 12.4 is just the average. The first and second rounds are the most common time for an upset to occur.
The most common upset is the No. 10 seed over the No. 7 seed, with a frequency of just under 40%. When the No. 11 and No. 6 teams play, as well as the No. 12 and No. 5 seeds play, upsets occur over 35% of the time. We all know the No. 12 and No. 5 matchup are some of the juiciest games of the tournament.
The No. 2 seed has only lost in the Round of 64 nine times in the tournament’s history. To go along with that, the No. 1 seed only lost once in the opening round, which was courtesy of the UMBC Retrievers over the Virginia Musketeers in one of the most legendary games of all time.
In the Round of 32, the two most common upsets are the 6 seed against the 3 seed and the 7/10 seed against the 2 seed. All of these numbers come from after the NCAA Tournament was expanded to 64 teams.
This was a lot to digest, but these are all the March Madness brackets tips you need to follow to have the best bracket possible.
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