A pair of unbeatens meet in the opening round of the Maui Invitational at 9 p.m. ET on Monday. The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) get a tough test against the No. 17 San Diego State Aztecs (3-0), who hope to be the best team out west, even better than the Arizona Wildcats.
It’s the first meeting between the two programs, so there isn’t a coaching matchup to fall back on when making Ohio State vs San Diego State betting picks.
It’s toward the tail end of a great slate of NCAA basketball games today, with this meeting airing on ESPN 2.
Top-quality Nonconference Games
It’s officially feasting week, known for top-quality nonconference college basketball games featuring some of the best NCAA basketball teams and college basketball players squaring off against one another, with teams who don’t traditionally play each other getting the opportunity to do so.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Matchup Info
- Date: Monday, November 21, 2022
- Time: 9:00 p.m.
- Location: Maui, Hawaii
- Venue: Lahaina Civic Center
- How to Watch: ESPN2
Ohio State Buckeyes Performance Recap and Analysis
The NCAAB schedule at Ohio State hasn’t been challenging yet, but that’s about to change. Awaiting the Buckeyes in Maui will be the Cincinnati Bearcats or Arizona Wildcats.
The following week they travel to Duke for the ACC/Big Ten challenge, and a few weeks later play North Carolina on a neutral court.
Ohio State Defense
So far, the Buckeyes have been great defensively, which bodes well for teams in tournaments. They are sixth in the country in holding teams to 50.7 points per game and third in the country in defensive efficiency.
Teams are converting 30.2% of field goal attempts and 19.7% of 3-pointers. That is both good defense and the quality of the opponent factored in.
Ohio State’s Averaging Numbers
This is why it is somewhat worrisome the Buckeyes are 92nd in scoring at 79.3 points per game. They are, however, 55th in efficiency at a 49.4% conversion rate, though only 167th in making 34.4% of 3-pointers.
The Buckeyes have been a strong rebounding team, ranking third with 46.7 per contest and 46th in limiting opponents to 27.3 per game.
Ohio State Challenge
The challenge will be to keep a slower-paced game to their liking. They have a strong forward play, with Brice Sensabaugh scoring 17.0 points in 17.6 minutes per game so far.
Zed Key is a top returnee and is averaging a stat line of 13.3 PPG and 12.3 RBG, while Justice Sueing is a wing averaging 12.3 points per game, though not yet shooting 3-pointers well at just 18.2%.
Key Injuries
The Buckeyes have a pair on the college basketball injury report who are questionable.
Guard Eugene Brown III is questionable with a concussion, and backcourt mate Colby Baumann is questionable with an ankle injury.
Betting Trends to Know
The over is 5-0 in its last five Ohio State games on a Monday, which bucks an overall trend of a 4-1 mark on unders in the last five games overall, and also the last five following a straight-up win.
Ohio State is 1-2 against the spread, unable to cover 27 and 31 points in its last two games. The under is 2-1.
San Diego State Aztecs Performance Recap and Analysis
San Diego State has had a few more challenges to its NCAAB schedule, so it should be well-tested.
The Aztecs beat Brigham Young, albeit as 10.5 favorites and didn’t cover, and won at Stanford as a road favorite. That competitiveness does not allow for great statistics early on with fewer cupcakes to beat up on.
Aztecs Rankings
The Aztecs rank 101st in scoring at 78.7 points per game but do have better offensive efficiency. They are converting 47.6% of field goal attempts, which ranks 93rd, and 37.7% of 3-point attempts, which ranks 37.7%.
San Diego Defense
Defensively they are 104th in allowing 64.7 points per game but are 187th in allowing teams to convert 42.1% of field goal attempts. They are 47th in holding teams to 25.8% from 3-point range.
However, the Aztecs have struggled with rebounding, ranking 332nd with 28.3 rebounds per game. Though they only allow 29.0 per contest.
A pair of stars are blossoming as forward Jaedon Ledee is averaging 16.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game, while guard Darrion Trammell is averaging 15.0 points, 3.7 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.7 steals per game.
Point guard Lamont Butler has averages of 9.0 points, 5.3 assists, and a surprising 3.7 steals per game.
Key Injuries
There are no college basketball injuries to report.
Betting Trends to Know
The Aztecs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Monday games. However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall. The under is 4-1 in their last five games following a straight-up win. The under is 20-7 in their last 27 neutral site games.
Ohio State vs. San Diego State Odds
Here are the NCAAB odds for those making Ohio State vs San Diego State betting picks:
San Diego State is favored by 4.5 points, up from an opening of 2.5 points, with the Aztecs -190 on the moneyline. Ohio State is +160 on the moneyline, and the over/under is 138.5 points.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Picks
Moneyline
We have to favor the team who has challenged themselves before this tournament and will take San Diego State to win at -190 moneyline odds.
Over/Under
Typically, games in Maui get off to slow starts because the gym is much smaller than the arenas teams are used to playing in and carry different sightlines.
Both these teams are strong defensively, so we’ll go under 138.5.
Spread
This is probably the toughest one for making Ohio State vs San Diego State betting picks.
The Buckeyes could win the rebounding margin, which is a key category for teams to win, so it should be close. We’ll take Ohio State +4.5.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. San Diego State Aztecs Score Prediction
Public betting data shows 62% of public bets are on San Diego State to cover the 4.5-point spread.
The Aztecs’ strong 3-point shooting is reason enough to believe in them, and they’ve survived challenges from two quality programs while the Buckeyes will be facing their first big test, especially for the guards.
While these games don’t impact college basketball standings, they will matter come March with the NCAA Tournament seedings.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 61, Ohio State 58
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