The #3 Cincinnati Bearcats’ quest for a berth in the CFP got a boost when UCF QB Dillon Gabriel broke his collarbone in week three. Gabriel is a two-time 3,300+ yard passer with 57 TD throws the last two years.
The Bearcats will take it as their #3 ranking is the highest in school history. The Knights still have a top 25 rushing offense, and although their two road losses to Navy and Louisville were both by one score, they were also favored in each. Cincinnati is a -21 favorite in this tilt.
Knights Too Overmatched Here?
UCF does have a 35-31 home win over Boise State on their 2021 resume, but that’s when Gabriel was under center, throwing for 318 yards and four TDs. Gabriel went down in the 35-42 loss at Louisville, and the team has turned the keys of the offense over to freshman Mikey Keene the last two games.
Considering the circumstances, Keene hasn’t played badly, throwing for two TDs vs. Navy and going 23/35 in last Saturday’s win over East Carolina. The challenge ramps up tenfold this week, though, with the Bearcats defense allowing just 177.8 yards/game through the air, which is 20th in the nation.
Cincinnati is pretty solid vs. the run, too, allowing 116.4 yards/game, which ranks 33rd in the country. UCF was able to win over East Carolina last week because of their improved run game, which ran for 165 yards on 35 carries. That ground game might not be as fruitful vs. the Bearcats.
If the UCF offense faces challenges on Saturday, defensive coordinator Travis Williams might not sleep much this week in prepping for the Bearcats attack. This season, Cincinnati has hung up 38+ points in four of five and lead the AAC with a 41.0 ppg average.
Bearcats Focused on the Present
There is a big game looming for the Bearcats down the schedule against #23 SMU (6-0) on November 20th, but Cincinnati knows the opportunity they have right now in climbing up to #3 in the AP Top 25.
If there’s any team that knows not to waste this chance, the Bearcats were 9-0 in the regular season last year but only climbed up to #8 in the country. Cincinnati has a top 6 Heisman candidate in QB Desmond Ridder, who continued his strong play last week, going 22/30 with 3 TD passes in the 52-3 win over Temple.
Ridder’s stats vs. Temple are taken with a grain of salt since Cincinnati was a -30 point favorite. The QB had 297 yards and three total scores in the 24-13 win over Notre Dame and had two more TDs in the 38-24 win over Indiana, both on the road.
The Bearcats are putting together a complete offense as this season moves forward. RB Jerome Ford hasn’t carried the ball more than 20 times this season but still has 516 yards and 8 TD.
UCF Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats
If UCF would’ve had Gabriel available for this game, maybe you put Cincinnati on upset alert as he threw three TDs in last year’s 36-33 Bearcats win. Instead, it’s Mikey Keene in just his third career start-up against a Bearcats defense allowing just 12.2 ppg.
All that being said and even with the opportunity that the Bearcats have going for them right now, a 21 point spread just seems like too much in this matchup. UCF coach Gus Malzahn knows plenty about big games from his time at Auburn, and he’ll have a game plan to keep this within three scores.