Illinois Fighting Illini are looking to curb a two-game skid and reclaim the Big Ten West lead when they visit the Michigan Wolverines at noon ET Saturday at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
Illinois (7-3, 4-3) was one play away from being undefeated before suffering recent losses at Michigan State and versus Purdue.
However, they still have a chance to play for the Big Ten Championship Game, and a win against Michigan would go a long way in helping those odds as they are one of four teams tied with a 4-3 league record.
Meanwhile, Michigan (10-0, 7-0) has an average victory margin of 30.2 points and hopes to set up a massive showdown with also unbeaten Ohio State next week.
That game will settle the Michigan Wolverines football division, barring a slip-up against Illinois, and would likely lock in a consecutive College Football Playoff berth.
With two games left on the NCAAF schedule, this is a critical week in the Big Ten. For Illinois, it’s to save the dream season from sputtering away, and for Michigan, it is to set up the big showdown they’ve hoped for.
A look at the Illinois vs Michigan betting odds shows the Wolverines as 18-point favorites with an over/under of 40.5.
Last Game Records
Illinois could not finish off drives in a 31-24 loss to Purdue a week ago. It was one of the brutal NCAAF games where the Illini won the turnover battle but had 12 penalties for 121 yards that extended drives for the Boilermakers time and again. In their losses, that has been an issue for Illinois.
Michigan overcame a pair of interceptions to keep pace in the NCAAF standings with a 34-3 victory over Nebraska.
The Wolverines picked up 27 first downs while limiting Nebraska to eight in a dominant defensive showing, allowing Michigan’s offense to take its time getting into a rhythm.
The Wolverines rushed for 264 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry in the win.
Matchup Information
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois has followed the classic recipe for a Bret Bielema-coached team: Control the clock and play great defense.
Illinois Fighting Illini stats show they are second in total defense, holding teams to 249.6 yards per game, and third in defensive scoring, holding teams to 12.5 points per game. They are also first in takeaways with 17.
Yet they haven’t played a team as talented as Michigan yet. But they’ve slayed the power programs in the West with the aforementioned game plan.
Illinois’ Offense
But the offense, which ranks 40th in rushing at 184.1 yards per game, is going to have to move the ball and be balanced.
Michigan’s defensive line is very good, so mixing in play-action passes is necessary. Illinois ranks 59th overall in gaining 402.4 yards per game but is 89th in scoring at 24.7 points per game.
They also have turned it over ten times, ranking eighth worst in the country.
Running back Chase Brown leads the country with 1,442 rushing yards, although he’s one of several with college football injuries after being listed as questionable with a leg injury.
He doesn’t ‘wow’ people with elusive moves but has been a bellcow. It’s questionable how the offense will proceed if he can’t play.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines is built similarly to Illinois, except with better athletes. The Wolverines’ defense is the No. 1 unit in the country. They allow 232.8 yards per game and 11.2 points per game, both top marks.
Their rushing defense holds teams to 72.7 yards per contest, which is also first. Teams throw for 160.1 yards per game, which ranks fourth.
Now part of that is Michigan has played one of the softest scheduled in the country, particularly in the nonconference against UConn, Hawaii, and Colorado State. Still, the defense has held up against the better competition.
Michigan’s Offense
Offensively they are strong, ranking 24th overall at 460.3 yards per game and doing it largely on the ground.
They rank fourth in rushing yards per game with 251.4 per contest. They are also fifth in scoring at 41.4 points per game and tied for 12th with only two turnovers.
J.J. McCarthy was handed the keys offensively after an early season tryout, and he’s completing 69% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions.
He’s also rushed for 195 yards and three touchdowns. But Blake Corum is the bellcow with 1,349 yards rushing, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, with 17 rushing touchdowns.
NCAAF Injury Report
The NCAAF injury reports are getting lengthy for each team, but the biggest injury status to watch is Brown, who is progressing, coaches said this week. Beyond Brown, his backup Josh McCray, is also questionable with a leg injury.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
Michigan has won five straight against Illinois, although that is spread out from 2010’s wild 67-65 overtime game to handily beatings and the last meeting in 2019.
Being in opposite Big Ten divisions, the two teams meet every so often as crossover matches change.
The underdog is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings, and Illinois is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings.
Yet the public data on Illinois vs Michigan betting shows 58% of bets on the Wolverines and 68% on the over.
That has driven the point total down from an opening of 43 earlier this week, which is surprising given the NCAAF odds of a three-score game.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Prediction
Michigan is facing a big number, but a lot of Illinois vs Michigan betting data shows people like the Wolverines to cover.
Perhaps what is most surprising is the number of people who are on the over. Illinois isn’t going to torch teams with its offense, and the best two units on the field at any given time will be each team’s defenses.
Who to Bet On?
The reality is that Michigan has bigger and more agile linemen and should be able to win against Illinois’ offensive line to generate pressure.
The fact that Brown is banged up isn’t a good sign, either, and Michigan has been the better team protecting the football.
We’ll take Michigan -18, but we will also go under 40.5 on a cold day in Michigan.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan -18 (-115)
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