Michigan State won their first eight games of the season, including a comeback 37-33 win over Michigan, but lost two of their final four contests and closed the season with a 30-27 defeat of Penn State.
The 11-2 Panthers are coming off a 45-21 victory over Wake Forest in the ACC championship game, but the high-powered offense will be without Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett at quarterback, as he has opted to begin early preparation for the NFL draft.
Michigan State vs Pittsburgh Stats
Looking at the Michigan State stats
The most glaring statistic for Michigan State is that they gave up more total yards per game than they gained, allowing opposing offenses to run up more than 455 yards a contest, including 338 through the air with opponents scoring almost 26 points a game, which barely ranked in the top half of the FBS.
The Spartans countered with the play of running back Kenneth Walker III, who finished with 1636 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards a carry.
Quarterback Payton Thorne was effective in the passing game, throwing 24 touchdown passes but also tossing nine interceptions on the season. The defense was helped by their 37 sacks on opposing quarterbacks, led by Jacob Panasiuk’s six in ten games played.
Looking at the Pittsburgh stats
The Panthers’ two losses came by a combined seven points, and while it’s easy to point to Pickett’s performance as the reason for their league title, the defense also deserves much of the credit.
Pittsburgh held opponents to just under 92 yards a game on the ground and were 41st in scoring defense at 23 points a game while racking up more than 500 yards per contest in total yards.
Without Pickett in the lineup against Michigan State, the Pittsburgh Panthers will need to rely more on a running game that produced 153 yards a game and four yards a carry, with Nick Patti filling in at quarterback after completing 12 of his 14 passes for 140 yards in limited duty.
Three running backs combined for 16 rushing touchdowns and should get a lot of touches against Michigan State’s run defense.
Betting Trends for Michigan State vs Pittsburgh
- Both Teams Among the Top in Beating the Spread
- Pittsburgh was 10-3 Against the Spread
- Michigan State was 8-3-1 Against the Spread
- Pittsburgh’s Games Were Over the Total 61.5% of the Time
- Michigan State’s Contest Were Over the Total 58.3% of the Time
Who to Bet Spartans vs Panthers
Without Pickett available for the Panthers, top sportsbooks have installed Michigan State at -2.5 for the Chick-fil-A Bowl on December 30th, with Pittsburgh at odds of -105 while the will pay out at -115.
On the Moneyline, Michigan State has odds of -135 with the Panthers at +115, and the total is set at 56 points with both the over and under at -110. This is a difficult game to pick, with Pittsburgh going with a quarterback who took very few snaps during the season.
Patti is still surrounded by a lot of weapons, and Michigan State gave up almost 340 yards a game through the air, so this could be a tough matchup for the Spartans if Pittsburgh can get into a rhythm with the passing game. Take the Panthers to exploit a porous defense and the over in a shootout.