Let’s see which team takes the win on this Nittany Lions at Hawkeyes betting preview.
Two unlikely teams have found their way into the top five of the polls this far into the college football season, but Penn State and Iowa have both proven to be worthy of their rankings. The Hawkeyes put a beat down on a struggling Nittany Lions team in 2020 after dropping six straight against Penn State over the last ten years.
Penn State hasn’t beaten a top-five team on the road since 1994 and has only beaten one top 5 team in the last 20 seasons, Ohio State in 2016. Iowa, on the other hand, has five wins against the top five teams during the same time span, including back-to-back wins over top-five Penn State in 2008 and 2009.
Penn State Nittany Lions Team Preview
James Franklin currently has his team on a nine-game winning streak after pulling a 180 in 2020 following an 0-5 start. The Nittany Lions have wins over Wisconsin, Auburn, and a shutout of Indiana through the first five games of the season. The defense has really stepped up its game this year, giving up just 12 points per game compared to 27 a season ago.
Sean Clifford took advantage of the extra year granted by the NCAA and has come back an improved version of himself. He’s had success finding his favorite target Jahan Dotson who has reeled in six of Clifford’s 11 touchdown passes on the year.
Penn State is currently 4-1 against the spread, with the lone exception being a closer than expected game against Villanova. With the help of their elite defense, they’ve played to the under total points betting line in four of their five games as well, with the Villanova game again being the outlier.
Iowa Hawkeyes Team Preview
Take everything that was just said about Penn State and amplify it for the Hawkeyes. The nine-game winning streak that the Nittany Lions are on is two short of Iowa’s 11 game win streak dating back to 2020.
The Iowa defense ranks 2nd nationally, giving up just under 12 points per game, an improvement from their 6th ranked scoring defense a year ago; both measures are just a touch better than Penn State.
Seems fitting that Iowa is ranked one spot ahead of Penn State then. The Hawkeyes have their defense to thank for this early-season success. Aside from the 2nd ranked scoring defense, Iowa leads the country in interceptions with 12 through five games.
That total is good enough to be five better than the next closest Big Ten team, which just happens to be… Penn State. The 12 interceptions lend to the league-leading turnover margin that has Iowa coming up more than two turnovers better than their opponent on a weekly basis.
Another similarity to the Nittany Lions, Iowa is 4-1 against the spread to start the year and has hit the under on the total points betting line in all but one game. The lone over came last week against Maryland when the Hawkeyes put up 51 points on their own.
Betting Preview
Sportsbooks have the betting line favoring the Hawkeyes by two points at home. The over/under is set alarmingly lowa at 41.5 total points between the two teams.
Even with the low betting total, it’s entirely plausible for the under to be in play in Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. The two teams combine to give up less than 25 total points per game, and neither offense has proven to be explosive.
Penn State has yet to show a great ability to run the ball to start the season, meaning they’ll be playing into Iowa’s difficult passing defense. The Hawkeyes forced Taulia Tagovailoa, the conference’s leading passer, into five interceptions a week ago and could absolutely give Sean Clifford similar headaches.
Expect the game to come down to limiting mistakes, and the Hawkeyes should be able to hold that advantage at home. Iowa to cover and the under are the plays here.
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