The 2024 Australian Open, the first of four grand slam tennis events, is into the finals with just two players left standing in the men’s draw. Jannik Sinner defeated 10-time champion and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the first of two semi-finals overnight Friday and Daniil Medvedev advanced to his third Australian Open final with a five-set, come-from-behind victory over Alexander Zverev. Here’s a look at the Sinner vs Medvedev betting analysis.
Sinner vs Medvedev Picks
- Pick: Sinner -275
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Information
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Location: Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia
Date & Time: Sunday, January 28 at 3:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN and TSN (Canada)
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Recent Scores
Sinner comes into the finals following a dominant 6-1, 6-2, 5-6 (6), 6-3 win over Djokovic in the semi-finals. It was his third victory over Djokovic in his last four matches and the first time in 10 years at the Australian Open that Djokovic had lost a set 6-1. Sinner had nine aces, won 83 percent of points on first serve, and was 5-of-11 in breakpoint opportunities. Djokovic didn’t have a single breakpoint chance in the match.
Medvedev enters the Sinner vs. Medvedev betting analysis following a 5-7, 3-6, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (5), 6-3 win over Zverev in a marathon match. Medvedev had 13 aces, won 78 percent of first serve points, and was 4-of-14 on breakpoint opportunities. Interestingly, he actually won fewer points (161 to 165) than Zverev.
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Analysis
Sinner into Grand Slam Final for the First Time
Sinner might be into his first grand slam final, but it’s not all that surprising considering how well he had been playing before the Australian Open. He led Italy to the Davis Cup at the end of last year and had incredible tennis stats over the last two weeks, not dropping a single set until losing the third set tiebreak against Djokovic. He dominated Djokovic like nobody has ever down, especially at the Australian Open.
Sinner, who is the fourth seed and has a 48-9 record on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, also has wins over Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov, Sebastian Baez, Jesper de Jong, and Botic van de Zandschulp. He should have the psychological edge in the Sinner vs. Medvedev betting analysis as he has won the last two matches, including at last year’s Nitto ATP Finals. Medvedev, however, holds the all-time advantage at 6-3. They’re 1-1 in two outdoor hard court matches.
Fatigue Could Be an Issue for Medvedev
Medvedev, into his third Australian Open final in four years, has really had to battle to get to this point. In addition to beating Zverev in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion, he needed five sets to win his quarter-final match against Hubert Hurkacz and survived another 2-0 set deficit early in the tournament against Emil Ruusuvuori. He had already been on court for 16 hours and 15 minutes before his marathon match against Medvedev, whereas Sinner has played just 14 hours and 44 minutes, including his match against Djokovic.
Medvedev might have been slightly favored in tennis predictions before the tournament, but he’s the underdog in the final in large part due to how long he has been on court and Sinner’s dominance through six matches. With that said, Medvedev is 6-3 in nine career matches against Sinner dating back to 2020. He last beat Sinner at the 2023 Miami Open.
Updates
Both players are healthy heading into the final, but the fact Medvedev has played more than 20 hours thus far has to be somewhat concerning.
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Preview
Sinner is the betting favorite with -275 moneyline odds, while Medvedev is a +190 moneyline underdog. Other tennis odds include Sinner -4.5 (-110) match handicap and the total games 38.5.
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Prediction
Sinner has been playing like a man possessed in Melbourne and seems poised to win his first grand slam. He’s 3-0 in his last three matches against Medvedev and has been on court six hours fewer than his counterpart. Sinner in five is a good value bet for the Sinner vs Medvedev betting analysis.
- Pick: Sinner -275
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