The New York Liberty have elevated their game during Commissioner’s Cup play and look to maintain second in the Eastern Conference at 5-3, sitting two games behind the Chicago Sky.
The Liberty have two games to play while the Sky have one, so a win for New York when it visits the Atlanta Dream at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday is critical. Atlanta is 2-5 in the Cup standings.
Women’s basketball began experimenting with an in-season incentivized event in which regular-season games count toward the Commissioner’s Cup. A total of 61 games decide who plays a championship game for a $500,000 prize pool for players and an additional $165,000 in charitable donations.
Overall the Dream (8-8) have been better than the Liberty (7-10), but Cup games have been a different story.
Last game records
The Liberty (7-10) beat the Connecticut Sun 81-77 last time out, sparked by a 10-point advantage in the first quarter. Despite losing the other three quarters, it was enough to overcome the Sun’s charge and secure the victory as double-digit underdogs.
Stephanie Dolson had 16 points, and Sabrina Ionescu was four assists shy of a triple-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists. They had five scorers reach double figures.
The Dream (8-8) were also victorious in their last game, beating the Dallas Wings 80-75. Dallas cut the lead to one entering the final quarter, but Atlanta was able to prevail.
Maya Caldwell scored 18 points to pace the Dream and did so on an efficient 7 of 11 from the field. Aari McDonald added 15 on 6 of 9 shooting, while rookie Rhyne Howard was 5 for 19 for her 16 points.
Liberty at Dream Betting Analysis
New York Liberty
The Liberty improved their record in June to 6-3 with that win against the Sun and includes a 7-2 record against the spread. The over is 3-6, however. However, season totals have them 9-8 against the spread and 7-10 on over/unders this season.
They’ve struggled offensively, scoring a league-worst 76.6 points per game. They are the second-worst 3-point shooting team at 32.3%, though they are eighth in overall field goal percentage at 42.5% and fourth from the free-throw line at 80.3%.
Defensively is where they’ve been stronger, allowing 80.8 points per game, which is league average. They force opponents to shoot 41.3% from the field, ranking second, though they allow a 34.7% conversion rate on 3-pointers, which is eighth. They also aren’t a great rebounding team, securing 34.2 (ninth) per game and allowing 37.2 (11th).
Ionescu has been a star since her Oregon days, and that has carried over into the WNBA. She’s averaging 16.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. Natasha Howard is adding 14.9 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Both Betnijah Laney and Marine Johannes have played five games apiece, but when they’re healthy and in, they combine for 21.2 additional points per contest.
Atlanta Dream
The Dream are trending in the opposite direction in June, going 3-5 straight up, though with a 5-3 record against the spread. The over/under is 4-4 in those games. For the season, though, Atlanta is 10-6 against the spread and 7-9 on over/unders.
Like Friday’s counterparts, they’ve struggled offensively and fared better on the defensive end.
Atlanta’s 78.1 points per game ranks 11th while they are league average at converting 35.4% of 3-pointers and ninth overall, shooting 42.2% from the field. They are also the worst free-throw shooting team at 76.2% and the second-best rebounding team at 36.4.
Flipping to the defensive end, the Dream force the toughest shooting percentage in the league at 40.0%, while opponents convert 33.0% of 3-pointers (fifth). In total, Atlanta allows 78.3 points per game, ranking fourth and 34.3 rebounds per game (fifth).
The Dream have a blossoming young core younger fans may recognize. Maya Caldwell scored 18 points in her first game. But for the season, it is Howard who is pacing the team at 16.3 points per game while adding 4.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.6 steals per contest.
She’s a rookie out of Kentucky. McDonald led Arizona to a Final Four, becoming a household name. She’s scoring 11.0 points per game, with Cheyenne Parker sandwiched between at 11.8 points.
Updates
The injury list is lengthy for Atlanta, with three players — Erica Wheeler, Kristy Wallace, and Nia Coffey — questionable. Another two, Kia Vaughn and Tiffany Hayes, are out indefinitely.
New York lists Han Xu as probable with an illness. Rebecca Allen remains out with a concussion. Jocelyn Willougby and Laney likely won’t return till next month.
Liberty at Dream Betting Preview
WNBA odds show the Atlanta Dream open as 2.5-point favorites (-105) against the visiting New York Liberty, +2.5 (-115). The over/under is set at 155.5. The Dream, of course, are moneyline favorites at -140, with the Liberty underdogs at +115.
Over the last six meetings in Atlanta, the under is 5-1. Since 2020, the Dream have won four of the five matchups, with New York covering two against the spread. The over/under is 2-3 in that span.
Liberty at Dream Betting Prediction
WNBA picks are sometimes tough to gauge because of who is in and who is out of the lineup.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions throughout June, and the Liberty are still in contention for the additional prize pool. Given it is a Commissioner’s Cup game, that may incentivize New York to come out hungrier.
Though Atlanta has better placement in the playoff hunt. Still, the veteran leadership of Dolson, along with Ionescu, forces us to take New York +115 and +2.5 (-115).
How to bet on New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
Find your favorite sports book and set a personal unit amount that you would be comfortable losing. Reading the odds means a $100 bet on the Liberty at +115 nets a $115 profit and a $215 payout. It would take a $140 bet on the Dream to profit $100 for a payout of $240.
The point spread means the Dream must win by three or more to cash, or the Liberty lose by two or less or win outright. The team’s total points determine the over/under winner.
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