The annual rivalry in the state of Iowa between the Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes takes place at 8 p.m. ET Thursday at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa.
It is one of eight NCAA basketball games today, so it should get good coverage and be on television. The two teams have been on each other’s NCAAB schedule annually since 1970, except for a break in 1972.
Each of these standout NCAA basketball teams is off to a great start. The Cyclones are 7-1, and the Hawkeyes are 6-2.
It is an important game for each team as it is the first away game for Iowa State and the home team looks to stay perfect in such games in the Iowa Hawkeyes standings.
6.5 points favor Iowa with an over/under of 140.5 points. Iowa State Cyclones basketball odds are +210 on the moneyline, while the Hawkeyes’ odds are -245.
The NCAAB odds show how unfavorable a schedule the Cyclones have played. That shouldn’t be discounted in an Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction.
Last Game Records
St. John’s visited Iowa State on Saturday and left after a 71-60 loss to the Cyclones. Jaren Holmes led Iowa State with 14 points and was one of three scoring in double figures. Caleb Grill had ten rebounds.
But the Cyclones really played great defense by generating 13 steals among 20 Red Storm turnovers to secure extra possessions. That defense will be tested on Thursday.
The Hawkeyes played Tuesday in Madison Square Garden and were a half-point favorite against Duke and lost 74-62.
Leading scorer Kris Murray was limited to eight points, while Patrick McCaffery and Dasonte Bowen each had 12 points to lead the Hawkeyes.
Iowa only turned it over seven times but was outrebounded 43-27. Iowa was just 3 for 16 on 3-pointers.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Analysis
This game will matter in the college basketball standings come NCAA Tournament selection time.
A win, either way, could be key down the stretch if either fails to win their respective conference tournaments in March.
Odds Breakdown
Both teams have been able to cover the spread at the same frequency with 5-3 records against the spread.
Both have also been involved in defensive games, as the Cyclones are 1-7 on over/under, and the Hawkeyes are 3-5 on over/under.
Iowa has dominated the series against the spread with a 7-2-1 record against the spread over the last ten meetings.
Picking them in an Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction would be going with that trend, but the Cyclones are 5-5 straight up in that same stretch in the series.
In the four times, Iowa has been favored in the last ten meetings, the Hawkeyes are 2-2 against the spread.
Iowa State Cyclones
T.J. Otzelberger is in his second season, and what a turnaround he’s had at Iowa State. He inherited a program that was 2-22 and turned them into a Sweet 16 team in his first season, finishing 22-13. Now 7-1, and the Cyclones are rolling.
Iowa State’s Defense
The defense has been excellent to start the season. The Cyclones rank ninth in holding opponents to 56.8 points per game, 20th in limiting opponents to making 37.3% of field goals, and 15th in holding opponents to 26.3% on 3-point shots.
The woes have come on the offensive end, though. The Cyclones are 203rd in scoring 71.8 points per game, 207th in converting 44.1% of field goals, and 31.8% of 3-point attempts, which ranks 274th.
NCAAB Injury Report
The college basketball injury report shows Jeremiah Williams is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and forward Tre King is out until Dec. 18 due to an eligibility ruling.
Holmes is the leading scorer at 14.8 points per game, while Grill follows at 10.5. Osun Osunniyi is third at 10.0 points per game, and Aljaz Kunc is the top rebounder at 6.4 per contest.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes like to play with a great tempo. They are 21st offensively in scoring 83.4 points per game. However, the offensive efficiency isn’t there yet.
They are 122nd in making 46.2% of field goal attempts and 233rd in making 33.0% of 3-point shots.
That number is bound to improve with the shooters who returned, given they are making 72.6% of free throw attempts, which ranks 107th.
Iowa’s Defense
Defensively they are around average. The Hawkeyes allow 68.6 points per game, which ranks 184th. Teams convert 41.9% of field goal attempts, which is 149th defensively, and 32.3% of 3-point shots, which is 170th defensively.
If the game comes down to rebounding, Iowa should have an edge. It is 51st in securing 36.3 rebounds per game yet allows 34.0, 315th per contest. A large part of that is a quicker pace under coach Fran McCaffery.
Kris Murray is taking a similar jump his brother Keegan – who became an NBA lottery draft pick – did and is one of the best college basketball players in the country.
Kris Murray is averaging 19.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, which are both tops on the team, and is converting 50.0% of shots and 37.8% of 3-point shots.
McCaffery is second at 12.8 points per game, Tony Perkins is third at 11.7 and has a team-best 3.1 assists per game.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
This season Iowa is 1-2 as a favorite, with the win coming as a more than 15-point favorite. The Hawkeyes are 0-2 when favored by 5 to 9.5 points. Iowa State is 2-1 as an underdog, including a 1-1 record in the 5 to 7 points range.
The public Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction seemingly likes the Cyclones, with 67% of public bets taking them against the spread. Another 53% are on the over.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Prediction
Iowa will likely dictate the tempo in this game and push Iowa State into uncomfortable situations. The best way for the Cyclones to avoid that is by making shots so that Iowa can’t get out in transition after misses.
We’ll go against the public and take Iowa -6.5. Being back in its home arena after a poor performance, the Hawkeyes will be energized by the crowd and want to improve on the poor showing.
NCAAB Pick: Iowa -4 (-110)
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