Finally the NCAAB schedule tips off on Monday, and for the Western Illinois Leathernecks and Illinois State Redbirds, it is two similarly positioned programs. They meet at 8 p.m. ET at CEFCU Arena in Normal, Illinois, for their season opener.
With each team starting at 0-0 in the college basketball standings, it’s an opportunity to avoid a potentially bad loss for a pair of NCAA Tournament hopefuls.
It isn’t fair to call the two in-state rivals, however, as they have no college basketball matchups previously.
However, it can be for Illinois State guard Colton Sandage, a nearby Bloomington, Illinois native whose first Division I seasons were at Western Illinois before transferring to Illinois State.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. Illinois State Redbirds
Matchup Info
- Game Day: Monday, November 7th, 2022
- Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: FuboTV
- Location: Normal, Illinois
- Stadium: Redbird Arena
Western Illinois Leathernecks
In Rob Jeter’s second year as head coach, he improved Western Illinois standings in the Summit League by leading the Leathernecks to a tie for sixth place, finishing 7-7 in the conference and 16-16 overall.
In his first season, the Leathernecks finished seven in the nine-team league with a 5-9 conference record and 7-15 overall.
His initial rosters included a lot of Illinois flavor after hiring Nick Irvin, a wildly popular high school and AAU coach out of Chicago, early in his Western Illinois tenure.
Three Coaching Stops
But as Irvin moved on, Jeter relied more on relationships he built over his previous three coaching stops at Minnesota, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Nevada-Las Vegas.
NCAA basketball stats from their opening scrimmage show Trenton Massner is going to be the leader. He had 25 points and eight assists in the 89-61 victory over Monmouth College.
Western Illinois’ Struggle
They struggled on the perimeter, however, converting 20.8% of 3-point attempts and shot an alarming 48.3% from the free-throw line.
The Leathernecks will rely on veteran leadership by Massner, a 6 foot 2 senior guard out of Iowa, Alec Rosner, a 6 foot 3 senior guard out of Wisconsin, and Vuk Stevanic, a 6 foot 8 fifth-year center from Serbia. They were the top three scorers in the exhibition.
Key Injuries
There are no college basketball injuries to report.
Betting Trends to Know
It’s difficult to make a Western Illinois vs Illinois State prediction since there are no college basketball matchups between the two programs, despite being located 90 minutes apart.
However, Western Illinois is 0-5 against the spread in its last five road games and 4-18 against the spread in its last 22 games overall.
Translation: The games are typically close when they are in league play. The under is 4-0 in the Leathernecks’ last four road games and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.
Illinois State Redbirds
Ryan Pedon is set to make his head coaching debut in the game. He hopes to build up the men’s basketball program like the Illinois State football team was at one point regularly competing in the NCAA postseason. But it may be more of a rebuild than he anticipated.
The Redbirds were picked to finish third to last in the Missouri Valley Conference after all-league pick Antonio Reeves left.
The cupboard wasn’t bare however as Pedon did a good job of bringing in transfers and filling the roster with good size across the board.
It may be a quicker rebuild than some think because of how difficult it will be to defend the athletes on the roster.
Pedon’s Alma Mater
That showed in an 84-49 victory over Wooster (Ohio) College, Pedon’s alma mater. Sandage scored 23 points including 5 for 9 3-point shooting to lead the team.
Elon transfer Darius Burford scored 13 points with five assists and three rebounds while Appalachian State transfer Kendall Lewis added 13 points and seven rebounds from his forward position.
Key Injuries
There are no college basketball injuries to report.
Betting Trends to Know
With a completely remade roster, these trends are hard to follow. However, CEFCU Arena, when supported well, is a difficult venue to play in and the Redbirds are 4-0 against the spread in their last four home games.
They finished 5-2 against the spread in their final seven games regardless of location. It makes leaning on the Redbirds for a Western Illinois vs Illinois State prediction a little more viable.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. Illinois State Redbirds Odds
It’s somewhat surprising that the Redbirds are favored by 9.5 points with an over/under of 145.5. The Redbirds are -550 on the moneyline while the Leathernecks are +400.
That surprise is because Illinois State is not expected to do well in its league while Jeter’s programs have generally performed pretty well.
Though the Leathernecks were picked to finish seventh out of 10 NCAAB teams in the preseason Summit League poll.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. Illinois State Redbirds Betting Picks
We expect Illinois State to defend home court and get the Pedon era off to a great start. We’re comfortable with Illinois State -550.
The under is probably the move. Illinois State appears to be a solid defensive team, which it will need to be in the Missouri Valley Conference, but Western Illinois’ struggles on the perimeter and at the free throw line is alarming.
For that reason, we’ve talked ourselves into Illinois State -9.5.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs. Illinois State Redbirds Score Prediction
With all the unknowns with great roster turnover for each team, the Western Illinois vs Illinois State prediction was a little more difficult.
When the lights come on for the first time, it’s difficult to know how players will react. There may be first-game jitters to get out of the way.
But Illinois State appears to have better athletes and certainly much better size than Western Illinois. That should lead to domination in the paint and on the glass.
Who to Bet On?
It should also open things up for Sandage, a noted sharpshooter who will have his own revenge game narrative, though he’s expressed gratitude for Western Illinois giving him a shot.
While Western Illinois’ poor shooting may have been an anomaly, the roster construction by Pedon has been tremendous, bringing in some Power Five transfers from very successful programs.
Having coached at Butler and Ohio State, he’s built some great coaching relationships and it has paid off with a roster that should surprise people in the Missouri Valley Conference.
Score Prediction: Illinois State 72, Western Illinois 55
NCAAB Pick: Illinois State -9 (-113)
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