Arguably the most exciting matchup on the UFC schedule this weekend is this heavyweight showdown between talented prospects Austen Lane and Jhonata Diniz. Lane needs to make a statement here to prove he belongs and Diniz is a highly-touted prospect who is new to MMA, coming from Glory Kickboxing.
Lane vs. Diniz Picks
- Pick: Lane to win via KO (-200)
- Bonus Pick: Lane to win in second round (+600)
Read more for the Lane vs Diniz betting picks and predictions ahead of placing any UFC bets on this weekend’s card.
Lane vs. Diniz Information
Austen Lane vs Jhonata Diniz
Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date & Time: April 27, 2024. 7 PM ET Main card start
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Lane is coming off a first-round KO loss to Justin Tafa at UFC 293 last September.
Diniz is making his UFC debut, coming off an impressive first-round KO win over Eduardo Neves on Dana White’s Contender Series last September.
Lane vs. Diniz Betting Analysis
Austen Lane
Lane is an American professional mixed martial artist with a record of 12-4, including 11 TKO/KO wins and 1 submission. Before starting his fight career, he was a very accomplished athlete–being an All-American in football in college and then getting drafted into the NFL. He is now 36 years old and has collected heavyweight championships in the Warfare FC, Combat Night, and Fury FC promotions before earning a UFC contract at the Contender Series.
Lane has a massive 6’6” frame with an 80” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He averages only 1:51 of fight time in the UFC, with landing 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.85.
Jhonata Diniz
Diniz is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 6-0, including 6 first-round KOs. He is a former GLORY kickboxer and SUPERKOMBAT Muay Thai fighter with a record of 22-7 (15 KOs). He won the 2016 ACB Kickboxing heavyweight title and the 2021 Tatneft Cup heavyweight championship. Now he’s been competing in MMA since 2022.
Diniz is listed as a 6’4” orthodox kickboxer with a 79” reach at the age of 32. In his DWCS bout, Diniz landed 7.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 7.38. He also defended 100% of the takedowns.
Updates
No reports of injuries have reached the UFC or ESPN.
Lane vs. Diniz Betting Preview
To make Lane vs Diniz betting picks and predictions, you need to understand the style in which these two fight and what the betting lines are looking like–to see what the smartest bet is to make with your hard-earned money.
The UFC odds have Lane as a sizable underdog at +245 as Diniz is making his UFC debut as a -285 betting favorite. Lane vs Diniz predictions need to be made with these numbers in mind. The money line for the favorite isn’t very valuable, so you might need to bet on a prop bet to get a worthy payout; like taking Diniz to win by KO at -200.
Stylistically, this is a matchup between a great athlete and a good kickboxer with a lot of experience. In this sport, it’s tough to be a heavyweight with a disadvantage in striking–especially if that’s your main strategy.
From studying the film, Lane obviously has massive size and athletic ability with the power to knock anybody out. He has some pretty noticeable and bad tendencies to shy away from punches, causing him to avoid punches by reaching out and having his chin up in the air.
Diniz is a legitimate kickboxer with serious power. He keeps his chin tucked and throws strikes with bad intentions. He will have the speed advantage too, which is massive in heavyweight MMA.
Lane vs. Diniz Betting Picks and Prediction
The official Lane vs Diniz betting pick and prediction is taking Lane to win via KO at -200. He will finish with a straight punch down the middle or a high kick at the end of a combination. Lane’s chin goes up in the air every time he pulls away–and that’s a recipe for disaster at this level of heavyweight MMA.
Diniz betting picks aren’t very valuable, so if you want to take a big risk there are a few options. One is taking him to win in round 2 at +600. The unwillingness to engage with the power of Diniz might let Lane survive the first round.
Keep your eye on Diniz’s upcoming UFC fights as he will be someone to pay attention to rising the ranks of the heavyweight division.
- Pick: Lane to win via KO (-200)
- Bonus Pick: Lane to win in second round (+600)
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