Who doesn’t love a little midweek MACtion? The Mid-American Conference has moved its league schedule to weeknights through November to draw more exposure, and it has created 27 straight days of football because of its adapted NCAAF schedule.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets
The Ball State Cardinals will visit the Toledo Rockets at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday for a pivotal West Division battle.
Looking at the NCAAF standings and Ball State football schedule, this is the best opportunity for the Cardinals to contend for a divisional crown and play for a MAC championship.
Ball State (5-4, 3-2 MAC) also hopes to become bowl eligible with a victory at Toledo (6-3, 4-1), which has won six of the last eight meetings in the series but only one of the last three according to NCAAF matchups.
Last Game Record
Ball State Last Game Record
Ball State had a rough first quarter its last time out. The Cardinals trailed by 13 before clamping down defensively to win 27-20 at Akron, with John Paddock finding Tanner Koziol for an eight-yard touchdown pass as the decisive score with 3:21 left.
The Cardinals were touchdown underdogs on the road but scored 17 points in the second quarter to storm back and stay in the MAC West race.
Toledo Last Game Record
Similarly, Toledo was in a battle with Eastern Michigan last week, trailing by a touchdown entering the final frame before emerging victorious 27-24.
The Rockets scored on a one-yard touchdown pass from Tucker Gleason to Lenny Kuhl with 2:09 remaining as the decisive score. The Rockets did not cover the spread as four-point favorites, however.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets Analysis
Something to consider before making a Ball State vs Toledo prediction is the status of Toledo quarterback DeQuan Finn. There are few college football injuries between the two teams, but Finn is a big one.
He has not played since Oct. 22 with an upper-body injury after being named the starter early in the season.
Toledo at the NCAAF Stats
However, Toledo has made due in his absence. Part of the reason is Toledo stats show they are 40th in the country in rushing at 187.4 yards per contest.
They are also 25th in scoring at 35.9 points per game. But the passing game has suffered as they are averaging 216.3 yards through the air, which ranks 92nd. They also have eight giveaways, which is among the worst in the country.
Rockets’ Defense
Defensively, the Rockets have been strong. Though they are 73rd in allowing 26.9 points per game, they are 35th in holding teams to 347.6 yards per game.
That is largely because of the pass defense, which ranks 24th in holding teams to 189.4 yards passing per game compared to 158.1 yards rushing per contest, which ranks 83rd.
They also have eight takeaways, which ranks 50th.
Ball State’s Rush Defense
NCAA football stats show Ball State’s rush defense has not been very good. They are 112th nationally in allowing teams to gain 189.8 yards on the ground.
However, they are 36th in passing, holding teams to 208 yards passing per contest. They total 27.2 points allowed per game, ranking 78th, and have five takeaways, which is 101st.
The good news is they also have five giveaways, ranking 45th offensively. The Cardinals are well balanced in passing for 247.7 yards per game, ranking 57th, and rushing for 151.7 yards per game, ranking 62nd, for an overall ranking of 66th at 399.3 yards per game. Yet they only score 24.8 points per game, which ranks 90th.
Toledo’s Rushing Attack
Part of what makes Toledo’s rushing attack so potent is the quarterback run game. Finn is tied for the team lead with 521 yards rushing and has eight of the Rockets’ 16 rushing touchdowns.
Jacquez Stuart matches his 521 yards, and both are at 6.1 yards per carry, but Stuart only has three touchdowns.
Players Performance Recap
Potentially concerning for Ball State is the status of Koziol, the tight end whose team-best sixth touchdown pass sealed their last win.
He’s part of a balanced receiving corps that has amassed more than 2,000 yards through the air and 16 touchdowns. But he is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Meanwhile, talented running back Carson Steele could be relied on heavily. The former Indiana Gatorade Player of the Year winner has already totaled 1,107 yards rushing on 5.0 yards per carry and nine touchdowns.
If he can get going and the Cardinals can stay balanced, it will be possible to play keep away and beat the Rockets.
Odds Breakdown
Ball State Cardinals
The Cardinals are 11.5-point underdogs and are +340 on the moneyline. The over/under for the game is 51.5 points.
The Cardinals are 2-1 as underdogs of seven to 13.5 points this season – all of which came on the road. Ball State is 2-2 straight up on the road and 5-2 on turf.
Toledo Rockets
The Rockets are laying 11.5 points and are -425 on the moneyline. Toledo is 1-1 – winning at home – when favored by 7 to 13.5 points this season. Toledo is 4-0 straight up at home and 6-3 on turf.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets Betting Pick and Prediction
Public betting data shows 56% of the bets are on Ball State to cover +11.5, and 60% of bets are on over 51.5 points. However, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Toledo and 8-2 in the last ten meetings, regardless of location.
The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings. The road team is 11-3 against the spread in the last 14 meetings, part of which includes Ball State going 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings at Toledo.
Best Bet #1
Our first Ball State vs Toledo prediction is Ball State +11.5 – This spread is suspicious, but it feels like it should be a closer game than 11.5 points for two teams battling for a division title.
NCAAF Pick: Ball State +11.5 (-110)
Best Bet #2
Our second Ball State vs Toledo prediction under 51.5 – It is expected to be 35 degrees for the late-night kickoff.
While winds will generally be calm at 7 miles per hour with 12 mph gusts, it likely will be a game with fewer points, given the temperatures.
If Ball State is going to play it close, it will likely have to control the tempo, too.
NCAAF Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
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