Week 9 is in the books, and the NFL looks forward. It’s hard to believe that it’s been 7 long weeks since the Miami Dolphins were 3-0 and looked like they could take over the league, and the Cleveland Browns were 2-1 with an optimistic outlook for the season.
The two teams have definitely taken different paths to this point. Who will take home a much-needed win for both teams?
If you need help with your Browns vs Dolphins picks, keep reading for breakdown and analysis.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Matchup Info
This is one of the better NFL matchups this week that people might be underestimated when looking at the teams’ records. The Browns are fighting to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture.
As the Bengals and Ravens start to run away with the division, the Browns only chance at this point may be the 7th seed in the AFC.
While the Dolphins are in position to take the lead of the division from the Bills, and need to do their part if they have any hope of taking the first seed.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has sneakily earned itself one of the best offenses in the league. Especially when it comes to run-game dominance.
When looking at the Cleveland Browns stats, the Browns are currently ranked 7th in the league for points per game, and 4th for total offensive yards.
The Browns are picking up 164.6 yards on the ground per game, and averaging almost 2 rushing touchdowns a game, which does beg the question of why are they only scoring a TD on 61.29% of their Red Zone trips when they should in theory be able to power through every time with Chubb.
Chubb is One of the Best NFL Players
Even though Chubb has some of the best NFL player stats of any running back in the league, I can’t help but feel like they should be doing more with him.
The Browns and more importantly, Kevin Stefanski have moved towards a controlling style of football for their game plan.
Currently sitting with the league-best 54.2% time of possession, the Browns have been attempting to control the game with their offense.
However, the Browns don’t have the defense necessary to win this style of game as teams score too easily for the lack of time to truly play a factor.
Key Injuries
Key injuries for the Browns includes CB Denzel Ward, currently out with a concussion; he was at practice Monday, so it’ll come down to how quickly he gets out of concussion protocol.
Ward being able to play Sunday would be a massive boost for a Browns’ defensive secondary that will be tested, unlike they have all season.
TE David Njoku also is optimistic about playing on Sunday despite his ankle injury.
Betting Trends to Know
The Browns are 4-4 against the spread and have covered the past two weeks.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are back in the race for the AFC East thanks to the Jets taking down the Bills at Metlife last week.
The current NFL standings have the AFC East up in the air as the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins all sitting at 6 wins and New England sitting at 5; anyone could rise up and take control of this division.
The Dolphins have gotten to this point of the NFL schedule by playing behind an explosive offense while the defense continuously tries to maintain the lead for their offense, oftentimes leaving a lot to be desired.
Dolphins NFL Team Stats
When looking at NFL team stats, the Dolphins are ranked 5th in offensive yards per game and 10th in scoring.
They score touchdowns 68.97% of the time they reach the red zone, and when you average 6.3 yards a play, you find yourself there often.
Key Injuries
The Dolphins are not strangers to injuries this year. Their latest NFL injury report has WR River Carcraft listed as out, as the IR list has been growing to now include:
- FB John Lovett
- LG Liam Eichenberg
- SLB Trey Flowers
- LCB Trill Williams
- SS Brandon Jones
- RCB Nik Needham
Betting Trends to Know
The Dolphins are 4-5 against the spread this season and are coming off a game where they were unable to cover -4 against Chicago.
Browns vs. Dolphins Odds Breakdown
The NFL odds currently sit in an interesting spot for making Browns vs Dolphins picks. The spread is -4 with Miami as the favorites, and even though they weren’t able to cover that spread against Chicago, it appears many favors the Miami spread.
Speaking of last week, it seems like people are expecting another shootout from Miami, as the point total sits at 48.5 points. The Cleveland money line sits at +175, while Miami’s is at -205.
Browns vs. Dolphins Betting Picks
Moneyline
This is a game that the Dolphins need to get a win in. With the division being as tight as it is, you have to win the games on your schedule that people expect you to win. This is one of the games.
Though their defensive secondary is beat up, it’s highly unlikely Cleveland will actually take advantage as they play a heavy run offense.
With a mostly healthy offense, I expect the Dolphins to secure their 7th win. This is my favorite of my Browns vs Dolphins picks.
NFL Pick: Dolphins (-205)
Over/Under
Last week the Dolphins gave up 32 points to the Chicago Bears. I don’t mean to keep harping on this, but it should be a red flag.
Yes, Chicago is looking better on offense, but for a team that hopes to compete with Buffalo for the division later in the year, there is a lot lacking.
I expect the Miami defense to come out with a purpose on Sunday, not allowing the Browns to contribute to the point total in any meaningful way.
NFL Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
Spread
I have this as a cultural reset game. The Dolphins haven’t been playing up to the level they once envisioned when they were 3-0.
This is a game where they can put themselves back on track, and to start the final sprint of the season with a good win.
NFL Pick: Dolphins -4 (-110)
Browns vs. Dolphins Score Prediction
My Cleveland Browns game prediction is: Miami 24- Cleveland 10.
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