NFL Player Stats
NFL Stats History
NFL stats started being tracked in the 1932 season— prior to that, all records were held unofficially. Neat fact, huh?
As the game evolved, individual offensive marks have also taken the spotlight, especially in the passing game. The adaptation and evolution of rules have been partially responsible for this, alongside the increase in overall talent on a yearly basis and smarter coaching schemes.
Now a staple in everyday NFL watching, be it in betting, fantasy football, or simply for bragging rights, NFL stats can help paint a picture of what is going on in the league without knowing the complete story from each team. It’s a living, breathing thing that changes by the game!
NFL Player Stats
NFL players’ stats are a valuable resource that encapsulates performance and impact on the field. From passing yards to touchdowns, these statistics provide essential insights for fans, analysts, and teams. NFL players’ stats are more than just numbers.
Which Are the Most Important Stats To Use While Betting on the NFL?
Let’s use this example:
Data point: “DeAndre Hopkins is tied for third in the league in receptions.”
- That sounds great, but to clarify, how many people is Hopkins tied with?
- How many times was he targeted?
- What is Hopkins’ yardage total?
- Did he score?
- Was his team able to win?
With only one individual data point, statistics are virtually useless when betting if there isn’t any provided context. In any circumstance, gathering information that provides context is more important than simply having the statistic available. For betting success, obviously.
Passing-Specific Stats
The NFL has evolved from being primarily run-focused to being mostly centered around effective passing attacks. However, effective passing doesn’t necessarily mean a team is throwing the ball 50 times per game. Effectiveness looks different from team to team based on who the playmakers in the offense are.
For teams with prolific passers under center like the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Tom Brady), effectiveness usually looks like finishing a game with around 300 yards and three touchdowns (or more). However, run-first teams like the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans only need their quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill, respectively) to keep their completion percentage high. They stretch the field a few times each game to open up the run game and avoid turnovers.
Metrics like passer rating and total QBR try to incorporate all aspects of a quarterback’s game into a single stat. Again, they should be used in conjunction with other stats, but there is usefulness as a merged figure because they combine multiple stats in their calculation.
Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions and runs on a scale from 0 to 158.3.
The formula looks like this:
- A = (completions/attempts – 0.3) x 5
- B = (yards/attempts – 3) x 0.25
- C = (touchdowns/attempts) x 20
- D = 2.375 – (interceptions/attempts x 25)
NOTE: If any value for A, B, C, or D is greater than 2.375, it is reset to 2.375. If any value is negative, the value is reset to 0.
Once the above values are calculated, the formula becomes:
((A+B+C+D)/6) x 100
Similarly, Total QBR seeks to isolate a quarterback’s overall efficiency by adjusting for the strength of the opponent in the equation as well. However, this is also one of the downfalls to the utility of Total QBR. When defensive strength isn’t as well known early in the season, that adjustment level is estimated. While this adjustment level is updated throughout the season to offset the estimates, making Total QBR less useful early in the season.
Another stat to reference is air yards per attempt, which can be split into both intended air yards per attempt and completed air yards per attempt. Air yards per attempt are a useful predictor for total passing yards, a popular prop bet. Pairing average air yards per attempt with average attempts per game and average completions per game is a useful formula for calculating an expected prop bet total.
From a receiving standpoint, be sure to look at stats such as targets, receptions, reception rate (receptions/receptions + drops), yards per game, yards per completion, and depth of target. These are especially useful for fantasy football and daily fantasy sports.
Rushing-Specific Stats
Similar to wide receivers with yards per game and yards per completion, running backs, fullbacks, quarterbacks, and even wide receivers can pick up rushing yards.
Players like Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyreek Hill, and Rondale Moore are wide receivers whose speed allows them to throw defenses off their rhythm through jet sweeps and end around. Quarterback Lamar Jackson ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards (1,519) and eighth in rushing yards (341). Jackson also ranks second in rushing yards per attempt (6.2). Another good stat to use is rushing yards before and after contact. This can again be broken down on a per attempt basis.
Rushing yards before contact indicates how effective a team is at run blocking because they’re keeping the rusher from being touched until he’s further down the field, leading to higher projected totals throughout the game.
Yards after contact is best used with before contact to estimate total rushing projections again. In recent years, broken tackles have been included with rushing statistics. While this is usually a lower total (Joe Mixon is the league leader through five weeks with 11), it can also be used to show how often running backs are taking on additional contact per play.
How To Bet Using NFL Stats
Betting using stats is very handy for player and team props, but also moneylines and spreads as well.
Starting with props, indications as to whether players will go over or under certain totals can be given by that player’s stats. For example, if Player A has excelled against teams running a base 4-3, like his upcoming opponent, he is set up for success. At the same time, maybe Player A’s season average for yards per game is under the total for the upcoming game, but he has gone over that total in five straight games— based on that, it would be smart to bet this player’s over because of his recent success.
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Sportsbooks generally list only the game lines, odds, and over/under totals because it is always the job of the bettor to have done their research before placing a bet. At the end of the day, the sportsbook’s job is to make money, and the costs involved with upkeeping enormous statistical databases that can already be found elsewhere are an unnecessary expenditure for the company.
Insiders Betting Digest will have a ton of content to help you win your bets, but for anything we can’t provide, the NFL website tends to have good, yet limited, information, as does ESPN.com. The site we’ve found to work the best is pro football reference, but it’s usually a good idea to cross-reference with either of the other two sites. Also, Pro Football Focus has a lot of specific information in regards to player performance. For college football, checking ESPN, team and conference-specific pages/websites, and are all good resources to use.
Like with preparing for your wager, researching multiple sportsbooks is essential for betting success. You can have an account with as many of the legal sportsbooks in your region as you would like, and one oddsmaker may have better odds for a game than another. The more you prepare, the more likely you are to succeed?
Absolutely! As the game changes, there will always be new ways to measure success or failure on the field. You should always be looking for new information that will add to your betting strategies so you can have the most up-to-date methodology and data.
Losing wagers is a normal part of sports betting. Anyone who tries to tell you they’ve never lost a sports bet has never made one (or they’re trying to sell you something). If you’re running into a losing streak, it’s ok to make a game (or set of games) off to adjust your strategies and methods – those who are great at anything are constantly learning and adapting. However, make sure you’re only betting on what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know needs help with a gambling addiction, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
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