Here we are going into NFL week 5, and could anyone foresee the state of the AFC East a little under a fourth of the way into the season?
If you pull up the NFL standings, you’ll find the Dolphins tied for first place in the AFC East, with the Jets only one game behind.
That brings us to this upcoming week as these two division rivals play in a game that could have major implications down the line.
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the matchup with all of my top Jets vs. Dolphins betting picks.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
Miami had a great start to their season. They went 3-0 in their first three games, including a miraculous comeback that watched the Dolphins climb out of a 21-point hole against the Ravens before upsetting the divisional rivals and also red hot Buffalo Bills.
Though they beat the Bills, their start QB Tua Tagovailoa started experiencing health concerns before suffering from a brutal concussion the following week against the Bengals.
Teddy Bridgewater will be at the helm of this team as they try to string along some wins before Tua’s return.
With plenty of offensive weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, I believe the Dolphins will be able to. As long as they are smart, injury wise I still foresee this Miami team in the playoffs.
Key Injuries
Obviously, when talking about Dolphin injuries, it’s impossible not to mention Tua Tagovailoa being out. Though it’s a significant hit, Teddy Bridgewater has proven himself as a serviceable backup QB.
He can keep you competitive and help win you games but can’t put the game on his shoulders the way their young star can.
Another position with some injury issues is Miami’s Defensive Secondary. Xavien Howard is still listed as questionable as of the time of writing this.
We are also expecting a midweek update on the Byron Jones injury. Jones has been out all season with an injury, and getting him back would be a big boost for Miami.
Betting Trends to Know
The Miami Dolphins are 3-1 against the spread and on the moneyline, while posting a 1-3 record on the total points line.
New York Jets
Well, Jets fans rejoiced as they got their young QB, Zach Wilson, back from his injury last week. Well, they were rejoicing until they saw the performance he left on the field.
Though able to squeak out a win against the Steelers (who are having a season of fiascos themselves), Wilson was held to only 18 of 36 for 252 yards while also racking up 1 TD and 2 INTs and a 53.2 QBR.
That’s not great for 2nd overall pick in the draft last year, but the season is just starting for him, and we will see if this week brings better performances with it.
Key Injuries
The Jets are very banged up at the Right Tackle spot as Max Mitchell is expected to miss a few weeks, which makes 3 injured RTs on the roster right now for the Jets, which is not great considering they want to protect Wilson, who just came back from injury.
Linebacker Quincy Williams is also questionable at this time. Losing Williams would hurt a linebacker’s room that is already appearing to be the weaker spot of the defense.
Betting Trends to Know
The New York Jets are 2-2 against the spread, on the moneyline, and on the total points line.
Jets vs. Dolphins Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline
The Miami Dolphins are the betting favorite on the moneyline, listed at -175. The New York Jets are the underdog, listed at +150
- Spread
As fpublication, the Miami Dolphins are listed at -3, with even odds, while the New York Jets are listed at +3, with -120 odds.
- Total Points
The total points for the Jets. vs. Dolphins is set at 44. The over and under are both listed at -110 odds.
Jets vs. Dolphins Betting Picks
Moneyline
Well, it should tell you a lot about the Jet’s odds this week as they come in as dogs even though their star QB is back and their opponent’s star QB won’t be playing.
Anything can happen in a division game, and I’m a big proponent of looking at that when betting, but I’m struggling to find ways for the Jets to win.
The Jets have had a hard time covering the middle of the field, the section of the field that Bridgewater had the most success against in Cincy.
If they do, it will be off of good QB play picking on Miami’s banged-up/backup-filled secondary.
Miami Beating the Moneyline
I actually like the Dolphins’ Moneyline as -175. I think it will be a competitive game and neither team has a QB that can really take over the game. However, Teddy Bridgewater’s experience, I think, could be the difference.
We need to stop and consider the fact that Teddy really has never played with a receiving core like this, one that can put the numbers up themselves on yards after the catch, which plays to Bridgewater’s strengths.
Look for Teddy to spread the field. As long as the price stays cheaper than -200, this will be one of my Jets vs. Dolphins betting picks.
Spread
This is an interesting spread, as I believe it truly will be a close game. However, look at the Dolphins’ stats, and you’ll find an interesting trend the team is 3-1 against the spread this year. With that being said, I’m going to be staying away from this spread.
The one time they haven’t covered is the game where Teddy had to come in. Now granted, the situation and opponent are going to be completely different.
Operational Offense
I still don’t know how operational the offense will be. I stay away from this spread at -3. The New York Jets have been in surprising games, and this very well could be one.
Though I said before, I don’t necessarily like the spread either way, but if you can shop around and/or buy a point or so, I’d probably jump on that line.
I think it will be a closer game, so I’m going with a bet between +3.5 – +5 as one of my Jets vs. Dolphins betting picks.
Total Points
I don’t trust the offensive output from either team, to be honest. We will see if this struggling Jets defense can hold this Miami Offense with a backup QB.
If Tua were playing, I’d hammer the over. However, with the injury, I think the Dolphins’ offense struggles a bit, even with the weapons they have. I’ll take the under in this.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Score Prediction
My final score prediction is 20-17 in favor of the Miami Dolphins.
NFL Pick: The Miami Dolphins to win on the moneyline (-175) or the under on the total points line (under 44 points).
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.
